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The mechanism linking the variability of the Antarctic sea ice extent in the Indian Ocean sector to Indian summer monsoon rainfall

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Abstract

The study investigates the mechanism of teleconnection between the variability of sea ice extent (SIE) in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean and the variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We utilized reanalysis, satellite, in-situ observation data, and model output from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) from 1979 to 2013. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis show that the first and third modes of principal component (PC1 and PC3) of SIE in the Indian Ocean sector during April–May–June (AMJ) are significantly correlated with the second mode of principal component (PC2) of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The reanalysis data revealed that the changes in the SIE in the Indian Ocean sector excite meridional wave train responses along the Indian Ocean for both principal component modes. Positive (negative) SIE anomalies based on first and third EOFs (EOF1 and EOF3), contribute to the strengthening (weakening) of the Polar, Ferrel, and Hadley cells, inducing stronger (weaker) convective activity over the Indian latitudes. The stronger (weaker) convective activity over the Indian region leads to more (less) rainfall over the region during high (low) ice phase years. Furthermore, a stronger (weaker) polar jet during the high (low) ice phase is also noted. The selected CMIP5 models captured certain atmospheric teleconnection features found in the reanalysis. During AMJ, the SIE simulated by the NorESM1-M model was significantly positively correlated with Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the IPSL-CM54-LR model showed a negative correlation.

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Data Availability

The datasets used in this study are available in the ERA-Interim(https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/), Met Office Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html), Global Precipitation Climatology Project(https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html), National Center for Atmospheric Research (https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/outgoing-longwave-radiation-olr-avhrr) and CMIP5 (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/).

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Acknowledgements

This study is funded by Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS) Project NoFP059-2019A and the Ministry of Sciences Technology and Innovation Flagship Grant: FP1213E037. It is also strongly supported by the Academic Sciences of Malaysia, Sultan Mizan Antarctic Research Foundation, Malaysian Antarctic Research Program and the Vice-Chancellor of the University Malaya. This work was also supported by the action group Tropical Antarctic Teleconnections (TATE) under Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). S.-J. Kim was supported by the project (PE22030) of the Korea Polar Research Institute. Also, many thanks to everyone who contributed directly or indirectly to the paper.

Funding

This work was supported by Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS: FP059-2019A), the Ministry of Sciences Technology and Innovation Flagship Grant (FP1213E03) and Academic Sciences of Malaysia, Sultan Mizan Antarctic Research Foundation, Malaysian Antarctic Research Program. Seong-Joong Kim was supported by the project (PE22030) of the Korea Polar Research Institute. Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities; Kementerian Sains, Teknologi dan Inovasi.

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All authors contributed to the study conceptions. Material preparation and data collection analysis were performed by SSAA. The first draft of the manuscript was written by SSAA, and all authors commented on all the versions. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli.

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Azhar, S.S.A., Chenoli, S.N., Samah, A.A. et al. The mechanism linking the variability of the Antarctic sea ice extent in the Indian Ocean sector to Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 60, 2665–2685 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06466-z

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