Abstract
This paper aims to empirically examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on economic growth in Tunisia between 1965 and 2019. The empirical methodology used is based on the one hand on the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (Econ Soc Monogr 31:371–413. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184474, 2001), and on the other hand, on the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (Nucleic Acids Res 42(11):90. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-021-00976-0, 2014). The results show that the asymmetry assumption is valid for the long term. In addition, the empirical analysis shows a negative impact of positive external debt variation and a positive impact of negative external debt variation. This suggests that economic growth is more sensitive and favorable to decreases than to increases in external debt, which in turn means that maintaining debt at relatively high levels is detrimental to Tunisian economic growth.
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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the databases of the Tunisian National Institute of Statistics (INS) [http://www.ins.tn/en/statistiques] and the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) [https://www.bct.gov.tn/bct/siteprod/index.jsp?la=AN]. Data are, however, available from the authors upon request.
Code availability
We use Winrats 8.0 and Stata 15.0 software to run different programs. Codes are available on request.
Notes
Additional unit root tests are available upon request.
The ARDL and NARDL approaches are implemented in the Stata 15 library package ‘nardl’, developed by Noman Arshed in 2017. (https://nomanarshed.wordpress.com/).
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The authors acknowledge with thanks the University of Sfax and the Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax for technical support.
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All authors participated in the methodology and the writing of the different sections of the article. Professor Kamel HELALI carried out the empirical part on the basis of the available data.
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Title of product: The symmetric and asymmetric impacts of external debt on economic growth in Tunisia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Main author: Rima ALOULOU, Maha KALAI, and Kamel HELALI. Affiliation: Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax, University of Sfax, Tunisia. This is to state that I give my full permission for the publication and reproduction in all editions of the above-named product. I hereby agree to release and discharge any editors or other contributors and their agents, publishers, successors and assigns from any and all claims, demands or causes of action that I may now have or may hereafter have for libel, defamation, invasion of privacy, copyright or moral rights or violation of any other rights arising out of or relating to any use of my image or case history.
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Aloulou, R., Kalai, M. & Helali, K. The symmetric and asymmetric impacts of external debt on economic growth in Tunisia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models. SN Bus Econ 3, 112 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00482-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00482-9