准确预测变压器油中溶解故障特征气体的体积分数对发现变压器早期潜伏性故障,实现电力系统安全经济运行具有重要意义。将灰色多变量预测方法和马尔可夫链理论有机结合,提出了一种适合变压器故障特征气体体积分数预测的灰色马尔可夫组合预测模型。利用优化的背景值构造公式建立灰色多变量模型对变压器故障特征气体时间序列的宏观发展规律进行动态预测,在此基础上,建立故障特征气体时间序列的状态转移概率矩阵,以归一化的各阶自相关系数作为权重值,通过加权马尔可夫链模型修正灰色多变量模型预测值,实现变压器故障特征气体体积分数的预测 ...
毛自娟
doaj
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变压器是电力供应的重要组成部分,油中溶解气体测试方法通常用于配电变压器的质量检测,从而诊断其故障。文中提出了一种改进的优化算法,利用溶解气体分析(disslved gases analysis,DGA)对电力变压器质量检测从而进行故障预测。首先,从各种来源收集来自变压器DGA的数据,并选择最佳混合特征集作为模型的输入。其次,对于特征选择,采用核主成分分析(kernel principal component analysis,KPCA),为了优化最小二乘支持向量机(least squares ...
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doaj
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