目的构建合理的生态风险评价方法,对于生态安全格局构建和国土空间优化具有重要意义。方法基于2000年、2010年、2020年3期土地利用数据,采用PLUS模型模拟2030年自然发展情景下土地利用,并利用InVEST模型评估产水、碳储、水土保持、生境质量4项生态系统服务功能,分别提取生态退化度、转移概率、服务变化、权衡协同指数4个生态风险指标,构建生态风险评价模型开展评价,结合云南省生态安全格局探讨风险防范对策措施。结果1)云南省2030年自然发展情景下的土地利用变化虽有不同,但变化程度均一致,耕地、林地 ...
谢佐清, 黄义忠
doaj
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