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Towards Reducing Aleatoric Uncertainty for Medical Imaging Tasks [PDF]
, 2022 In safety-critical applications like medical diagnosis, certainty associated with a model's prediction is just as important as its accuracy. Consequently, uncertainty estimation and reduction play a crucial role.
Narayanan C. Krishnan +1 more
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Balancing the Unknown: Exploring Human Reliance on AI Advice Under Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty [PDF]
ACM Transactions on Computer-Human InteractionArtificial intelligence systems increasingly support decision-making across a broad range of domains. The complexity of real-world tasks, however, introduces uncertainty into the prediction capabilities of these systems.
Niklas Kühl +2 more
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Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Modeling
Volume 8: 22nd Reliability, Stress Analysis, and Failure Prevention Conference; 25th Conference on Mechanical Vibration and Noise, 2013One major difficulty that exists in reconciling model predictions of a system with experimental measurements is assessing and accounting for the uncertainties in the system. There are several enumerated sources of uncertainty in model prediction of physical phenomena, the primary ones being: 1) Model form error, 2) Aleatoric uncertainty of model ...
Daniel J. Segalman +4 more
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A Modal Aleatoric Calculus for Probabilistic Reasoning
2019We consider multi-agent systems where agents actions and beliefs are determined aleatorically, or “by the throw of dice”. This system consists of possible worlds that assign distributions to independent random variables, and agents who assign probabilities to these possible worlds.
Tim French 0002 +2 more
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Dynamic Aleatoric Reasoning in Games of Bluffing and Chance
International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, 2019Games of chance and bluffing, such as bridge, The Resistance, and poker allow epistemic reasoning. Players know their own cards while being uncertain of opponents'. Success generally involves reducing your uncertainty without reducing that of your opponents. Reasoning in such games requires a mix of logical (deducing what is possible) and probabilistic
Tim French 0002 +2 more
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Robust Aleatoric Modeling for Future Vehicle Localization
2019 IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition Workshops (CVPRW), 2019The task of 2D object localization prediction, or the estimation of an object's future location and scale in an image, is a developing area of computer vision research. An accurate prediction of an object's future localization has the potential for drastically improving critical decision making systems.
Max Hudnell +2 more
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Aleatoric Dynamic Epistemic Logic for Learning Agents
2019We propose a generalisation of dynamic epistemic logic, where propositions are aleatoric: that is, rather than having true/false values, propositions have odds of being true. Agents in such a system suppose a probability distribution of possible worlds, and based on observations are able to refine this probability distribution to match their ...
Tim French 0002 +2 more
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Aleatoric Predicates: Reasoning about Marbles
International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent SystemsAleatoric Logic is the logic of dice, where Boolean propositions are replaced by independent probabilistic events. In a first order extension of this notion, Aleatoric predicates are applied to domain elements selected via independent probabilistic events.
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B.S. Johnson and the Aleatoric Novel
2014B.S. Johnson’s 1969 novel The Unfortunates is perhaps the most combative treatment of his literary ideals, problematising the conflict between an avoidance of ‘telling lies’ and a compulsion to seek a new form to represent the messy maelstrom of modernity.
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