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Modelling Explosive Nonstationarity of Ground Motion Shows Potential for Landslide Early Warning

Engineering Proceedings
This work applies the rarely seen explosive version of autoregressive modelling to a novel practical context—geological failure monitoring. This approach is more general than standard ARMA or ARIMA methods in that it allows the underlying data process to
Michael Manthey, Guoqi Qian, Antoinette Tordesillas +2 more
doaj +1 more source

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 53, Issue 5, 16 March 2026.
Abstract Recent record‐hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and
G. Foster, S. Rahmstorf
wiley +1 more source

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of ARMA Model with Error Processes for Replicated Observations [PDF]

In this paper we analyse the repeated time series model where the fundamental component follows a ARMA process. In the model, the error variance as well as the number of repetition are allowed to change over time. It is shown that the model is identified.
Keshab Shrestha, Robert B. Miller, Wing-Keung Wong +2 more
core

On the Gaussian distribution of the Mann-Kendall tau in the case of autocorrelated data. [PDF]