Results 111 to 120 of about 30,999 (254)
Monitoring Processes with Changing Variances [PDF]
Statistical process control (SPC) has evolved beyond its classical applications in manufacturing to monitoring economic and social phenomena. This extension requires consideration of autocorrelated and possibly non-stationary time series.
J. Keith Ord
core
The Accuracy Smoothness Dilemma in Prediction: A Novel Multivariate M‐SSA Forecast Approach
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting presents a complex estimation challenge, as it involves balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Conventional forecast optimization methods typically emphasize a single metric, such as minimizing the mean squared error (MSE), which may neglect other crucial aspects of predictive performance. To address this
Marc Wildi
wiley +1 more source
MathematicsIn many situations, the quality of a process or product can be characterized by a functional relationship or profile. It is well-known that the independence assumptions of the error terms within or between profiles are not always valid and could be ...
Aylin Pakzad +3 more
doaj +1 more source
Relaxed phylogenetics and dating with confidence.
PLoS Biology, 2006 In phylogenetics, the unrooted model of phylogeny and the strict molecular clock model are two extremes of a continuum. Despite their dominance in phylogenetic inference, it is evident that both are biologically unrealistic and that the real evolutionary
Alexei J Drummond +3 more
doaj +1 more source
Can Personal Freedom Drive Economic Complexity?
Kyklos, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Research on economic complexity has identified various factors that enable countries to achieve higher levels of productive sophistication. However, the role of personal freedom as a distinct driver has been overlooked. This paper argues that by providing the necessary environment for individuals to explore new ideas, be creative and challenge
Vítor Castro
wiley +1 more source
A Noisy Model of Individual Behaviour. [PDF]
This paper develops a model of individual adjustment subject to mistakes. In this case when mistakes are assumed i.i.d., this process produces a probability distribution of agents decision whose evolution is determined by Fokker-Planck equation.
Basov, S.
core
Output Gap Uncertainty, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Contingent Importance of the Bond Vigilantes
Metroeconomica, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper investigates the implications of output gap uncertainty for the conduct of fiscal policy using a small‐scale macroeconomic model with boundedly rational agents. Specifically, agents use an adaptive updating mechanism to approximate the unobservable potential output that suffers, similarly to the Hodrick and Prescott (1997) filter ...
Christian R. Proaño, Jonas Dix
wiley +1 more source
Bootstrap Methods for Inference in a SUR model with Autocorrelated Disturbances [PDF]
Although the Parks (1967) estimator for a SUR model with AR disturbances is efficient both asymptotically and in small samples, Kmenta and Gilbert (1970) and more recently Beck and Katz (1995) note that estimated standard errors tend to be biased ...
Clarisse Messemer, Richard Parks
core
On the (Mis)Use of Machine Learning With Panel Data
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We provide the first systematic assessment of data leakage issues in the use of machine learning on panel data. Our organising framework clarifies why neglecting the cross‐sectional and longitudinal structure of these data leads to hard‐to‐detect data leakage, inflated out‐of‐sample performance, and an inadvertent overestimation of the real ...
Augusto Cerqua +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Scaling power laws in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange [PDF]
The scaling of the probability distribution of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange index is shown to be described by a Levy stable stochastic process for the modal region of the distribution. Data refer to daily records for the 30-year period 1968-1998.
Iram Gleria +2 more
core