Results 191 to 200 of about 283,485 (287)

Evaluating Forecasts at Multiple Horizons: An Extension of the Diebold–Mariano Approach

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecast accuracy tests are fundamental tools for comparing competing predictive models. The widely used Diebold–Mariano (DM) test assesses whether differences in forecast errors are statistically significant. However, its standard form is limited to pairwise comparisons at a single forecast horizon.
Andrew Grant   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Modelling COVID-19 incidence in the African sub-region using smooth transition autoregressive model. [PDF]

open access: yesModel Earth Syst Environ, 2022
Aidoo EN   +4 more
europepmc   +1 more source

The Role of Price‐Volatility Cojumps in Volatility Forecasting

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether simultaneous jumps in prices and volatility improve volatility forecasting. Using up‐to‐date high‐frequency S&P 500 and VIX data, we identify price‐volatility cojumps at the intraday granularity and construct upside, downside, and asymmetric measures.
Kefu Liao
wiley   +1 more source

On the Comovement of Contango and Backwardation Across Futures Commodity Markets

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We examine the time‐varying nature of the comovement of the slope of the futures curve in major agricultural, metals and energy commodity futures markets in a Global Vector Autoregressive model. We find significant comovement between the slopes, indicating the co‐existence of backwardation and contango in many seemingly unrelated commodity ...
Angelo Luisi   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Quadratic Hedging of American Options Under GARCH Models

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT American options are widely traded in financial markets, yet there is a scarcity of literature on hedging in incomplete markets. In this paper, we derive optimal hedging ratios and option values using Local Risk Minimization (LRM) and Global Risk Minimization (GRM) hedging strategies through dynamic programming.
Junmei Ma, Chen Wang, Wei Xu
wiley   +1 more source

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