Results 201 to 210 of about 56,489 (266)

A New Implementation of Network GARCH Model for Stock Volatility and Co‐Volatility Forecasting

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of financial time series with many cross‐sectional assets. While network analysis links similar or correlated stocks and helps trace volatility spillovers, contemporary multivariate ARCH‐GARCH formulations struggle to represent structured network dependence and remain parsimonious.
Peiyi Zhou
wiley   +1 more source

A Novel Text‐Based Framework for Forecasting Carbon Prices

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study proposes a text‐based framework for predicting EU carbon prices. Using weekly data from 2020 to 2024, we construct a multivariate dataset combining financial indicators, commodity prices, Google Trends measures, and news‐based sentiment extracted using FinBERT.
Christian Oliver Ewald, Yaoyu Li
wiley   +1 more source

Improved Prediction of New COVID-19 Cases Using a Simple Vector Autoregressive Model: Evidence from Seven New York State Counties

, 2022
Kitaoka T, Takahashi H.
europepmc   +2 more sources

Beta Forecasting With Realized Beta Estimators and Machine Learning Algorithms

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper applies machine learning algorithms to the modeling of realized betas for the purposes of forecasting stock systematic risk. Higher levels of beta forecast accuracy are demonstrated, relative to other studies in the literature. These improvements are also highly significant, both statistically and economically.
Bao Doan, Dulani Jayasuriya, John B. Lee, Jonathan J. Reeves   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting Duration in High‐Frequency Financial Data Using a Self‐Exciting Flexible Residual Point Process

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self‐exciting flexible residual point process. High‐frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy‐tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge for accurate prediction.
Kyungsub Lee
wiley   +1 more source

Loss‐Aware Forecast Construction for Realized Variance

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasts of realized variance are commonly constructed from models of log‐realized variance and then transformed back to the original scale. However, the resulting forecasts are often evaluated using loss functions defined in relative rather than absolute terms, creating a potential mismatch between forecast construction and forecast ...
Nick Taylor
wiley   +1 more source

MARS‐Diff: Guarded Residual Diffusion for Leakage‐Disciplined Probabilistic Portfolio‐Loss Forecasting

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper develops Masked Asset–Regime Scenario Diffusion (MARS‐Diff), a leakage‐disciplined framework for probabilistic forecasting of multiday portfolio losses. The framework combines a regularized heterogeneous autoregressive model with exogenous predictors (HAR‐X) as its anchor, a train‐only masked representation of a high‐dimensional ...
Çağlar Sözen, Mervenur Sözen
wiley   +1 more source

The Role of Variance Risk Premium in Derivative Pricing: Modeling, Estimation and Impact

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper estimates a model where variance risk premiums (VRP) is not fully explained by equity risk premiums (ERP). This separation can be detected thanks to a new breed of GARCH models with enough innovations to disconnect returns from variances. This type of risk‐neutralization is compatible with continuous‐time settings.
Marcos Escobar‐Anel, Lars Stentoft, Xize Ye   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Tail Risk Transmission in Agricultural and Energy Markets

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper examines downside hedging, tail diversification, and extreme tail risk transmission between crude oil and agricultural commodity futures over two decades. We develop complementary indicators of downside dependence, including sign‐switching frequency and persistence, to assess tail risk dynamics, hedging effectiveness, and associated
Emmanuel Senyo Fianu, Daniel Felix Ahelegbey, Roberto Casarin, Luigi Grossi   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Knowledge sourcing, geopolitics, and FDI: An empirical analysis on the US green and digital sectors

Global Strategy Journal, EarlyView.
Abstract Research Summary This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) shapes firms' sourcing of knowledge in the digital and green domains under rising geopolitical frictions. We assemble a firm–country dyadic panel (2013–2020) linking US patent backward citations to firms' FDI, enriched with bilateral geopolitical distance and host‐country
Alberto Maria Radici
wiley   +1 more source