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Neglect the Base Rate: It's the Law! [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012 If accurate prediction is the goal, and if information about the unconditional probability of the predicted event is available, a strong case can be made for using this information, i.e. for a Bayesian approach to inference. Not so rarely, the law calls for accurate prediction, e.g. if a bailing decision hinges on an estimate of recidivism risk.
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 1997
In base rate problems the estimated probability must equal the base rate only where random sampling is assumed. Otherwise there is uncertainty over and above that which can be included in any probability model and inductive inference is involved. Subjects should use base rates to the extent that the problem suggests a simple random sampling model.
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In base rate problems the estimated probability must equal the base rate only where random sampling is assumed. Otherwise there is uncertainty over and above that which can be included in any probability model and inductive inference is involved. Subjects should use base rates to the extent that the problem suggests a simple random sampling model.
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Auditors and base rates revisited
Accounting, Organizations and Society, 1987Abstract In their 1981 study “Are Auditors' Judgments Sufficiently Regressive?” [Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1981) pp. 323–349] Joyce & Biddle found that auditors underweighted base rates relative to a normative standard (Bayes' theorem), but appeared to be more sensitive to base rates than other subject groups.
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Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 1982
Leonard G. Rorer, Robyn M. Dawes
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Leonard G. Rorer, Robyn M. Dawes
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Base rates in neuropsychology.
Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 1987David Duncan, William G. Snow
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