Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy
American Journal of Political Science, EarlyView.Abstract Many dictatorships end up with a series of disastrous decisions such as Hitler's attack on the Soviet Union or Saddam Hussein's aggression against Kuwait. Even if a certain policy choice is not ultimately fatal for the regime, such as Mao's Big Leap Forward or the Pol Pot's collectivization drive, they typically involve both a miscalculation ...
Georgy Egorov, Konstantin Sonin
wiley +1 more source
A Testing and Quarantine Algorithm for Individual International Travelers Using Published Data on WHO-Approved Vaccines and Bayes' Theorem. [PDF]
Vaccines (Basel), 2022 Lee FW, Wang J, Wang CJ.
europepmc +1 more source
Long‐run confidence: Estimating uncertainty when using long‐run multipliers
American Journal of Political Science, EarlyView.Abstract Researchers are often interested in the long‐run relationship (LRR) between variables where the dependent variable has dynamic properties. Though determining the long‐run multiplier (LRM) for an independent variable is straightforward, correctly estimating the significance of the LRM is often difficult, especially when time series are short ...
Mark David Nieman, David A. M. Peterson
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Corrigendum to "Error rates in SARS-CoV-2 testing examined with Bayes' theorem" [Heliyon 7, (4), (April 2021), Article e06905]. [PDF]
Heliyon, 2022 Bentley P.
europepmc +1 more source
A tutorial on Bayesian model averaging for exponential random graph models
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, EarlyView.Abstract The use of exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is becoming prevalent in psychology due to their ability to explain and predict the formation of edges between vertices in a network. Valid inference with ERGMs requires correctly specifying endogenous and exogenous effects as network statistics, guided by theory, to represent the network ...
Ihnwhi Heo +2 more
wiley +1 more source
An extension of the basic local independence model to multiple observed classifications
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, EarlyView.Abstract The basic local independence model (BLIM) is appropriate in situations where populations do not differ in the probabilities of the knowledge states and the probabilities of careless errors and lucky guesses of the items. In some situations, this is not the case. This work introduces the multiple observed classification local independence model
Pasquale Anselmi +8 more
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APPLYING BAYESIAN METHODS FOR METROLOGICAL EVALUATION AND INTERPRETATION OF FORENSIC EVIDENCE
Теория и практика судебной экспертизы, 2014 The paper summarizes Bayesian approaches to uncertainty assessment of forensicexamination results and o#ers a brief overview of current achievements in the applicationof the likelihood ratio concept in forensic practice.
G. Bebeshko +3 more
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Prevalence of Birt-Hogg-Dubé Syndrome Determined Through Epidemiological Data on Spontaneous Pneumothorax and Bayes Theorem. [PDF]
Front Med (Lausanne), 2021 Muller ME, Daccord C, Taffé P, Lazor R.
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Calibrating Bayesian inference
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, EarlyView.Abstract Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information‐updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as instruments to facilitate computation, rather than as representations of genuine subjective belief ...
Yang Liu +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Estimating the burden of multiple endemic diseases and health conditions using Bayes' Theorem: A conditional probability model applied to UK dairy cattle. [PDF]
Prev Vet Med, 2022 Rasmussen P +4 more
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