Results 61 to 70 of about 38,054 (189)
Journal of Risk and Insurance, EarlyView.Abstract This paper introduces a multi‐stage Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of workers and retirees, segmented by disability status and eligibility for Disability Pension (DP) benefits. Extending Gertler (1999) with progressive disability stages of distinct productivity and transition probabilities, and calibrated to US data, the model generates ...
Hangsuck Lee +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Diagnostic Accuracy Studies: Sensitivity, Specificity, and Beyond
Journal of Periodontal Research, EarlyView.This methodological article covers key diagnostic accuracy measures, common pitfalls in diagnostic accuracy studies, and how evidence should progress from diagnostic accuracy to clinical effectiveness, with examples from various fields. ABSTRACT Diagnostic tests are central to medical care, and their evaluation remains methodologically challenging ...
Nancy Vegas +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Multiple Chains Markov Switching Vector Autoregression
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Both the U.S. stock and bond returns exhibit distinct Markovian regimes. However, because these regimes display limited coherence, conventional models typically require highly parameterized systems to adequately capture their joint distribution.
Leopoldo Catania
wiley +1 more source
Information‐Theoretic Approach to Financial Market Modeling
Mathematical Finance, EarlyView.ABSTRACT The paper treats the financial market as a communication system, using four information‐theoretic assumptions to derive an idealized model with only one parameter. State variables are scalar stationary diffusions. The model maximizes the surprisal of the market and minimizes the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the benchmark‐neutral pricing
Eckhard Platen
wiley +1 more source
On Short‐Term Behavior of Implied Volatility for Index Options
Mathematical Finance, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper investigates short‐term behavior of implied volatility of derivatives written on a market index when the index is constructed using a ranking procedure. Even when stock prices follow geometric Brownian motion dynamics, the ranking mechanism can lead to the observed term structure of at‐the‐money (ATM) implied volatility skew for ...
Huy N. Chau, Duy Nguyen, Thai Nguyen
wiley +1 more source
The computation of case fatality rate for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) based on Bayes theorem: An observational study. [PDF]
Medicine (Baltimore), 2020 Chang CS +5 more
europepmc +1 more source
Is A Little Learning Dangerous?
Noûs, EarlyView.ABSTRACT I argue that a little learning is often dangerous even for ideal reasoners who are operating in extremely simple scenarios and know all the relevant facts about how the evidence is generated. More precisely, I show that, on many plausible ways of assigning value to a credence in a hypothesis H, ideal Bayesians should sometimes expect other ...
Bernhard Salow
wiley +1 more source
Assessing the Effectiveness of Workers' Selection Exams: The Case of the Bank of Italy
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, EarlyView.ABSTRACT High‐stakes exams can be used to rank and select candidates for job openings, and the ability of those selected hinges on the design of the exam. I propose a method to model candidates' performance to assess how effective the exam is at selecting high‐ability candidates.
Santiago Pereda‐Fernández
wiley +1 more source
Circular inference in visual cortical hierarchies in schizophrenia
Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences, EarlyView.Aim In schizophrenia, disrupted perceptual processes contribute to positive symptoms. However, it remains unclear how top‐down priors and bottom‐up likelihoods are represented across the hierarchy of visual cortices. To identify these processes within cortical hierarchies, the circular inference model offers a framework to account for the biased ...
Shuhei Hara +7 more
wiley +1 more source
Simulations All the Way Up! An Atheist's Response to the Fine‐Tuning Argument
Analytic Philosophy, EarlyView.ABSTRACT So the Fine‐tuning Argument goes, because it is so unlikely for the physical constants of the laws of nature to have taken the values that they in fact take, we should significantly raise our credence that God exists. Simulation Arguments argue that our world might be (or, in stronger versions, that it probably is) a mere computer simulation ...
Nikk Effingham
wiley +1 more source