Results 241 to 250 of about 5,203 (262)
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Academy of Management Proceedings, 2007
We study three distinct measures of overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's performance, (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (3) overprecision in one's belief about private signals. A new set of experiments verifies a strong negative link between overestimation and overprecision that depends crucially on task difficulty ...
Healy, Paul J., Moore, Don A.
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We study three distinct measures of overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's performance, (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (3) overprecision in one's belief about private signals. A new set of experiments verifies a strong negative link between overestimation and overprecision that depends crucially on task difficulty ...
Healy, Paul J., Moore, Don A.
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Econometrica, 1985
The widespread use of prior information in formulating, estimating, and using econometric models is reviewed. Attempts to avoid the use of prior information by formulating multivariate statistical VAR and ARMA time series models for economic time series data have resulted in heavily over-parametrized models.
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The widespread use of prior information in formulating, estimating, and using econometric models is reviewed. Attempts to avoid the use of prior information by formulating multivariate statistical VAR and ARMA time series models for economic time series data have resulted in heavily over-parametrized models.
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Econometrica, 1991
Summary: The subject of this paper is the decentralization of decision making when agents have information which is incomplete and possibly exclusive. The first theorem states that in economic environments with three or more individuals, there exists a mechanism whose Bayesian equilibria coincide with a desired collection of social choice functions if ...
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Summary: The subject of this paper is the decentralization of decision making when agents have information which is incomplete and possibly exclusive. The first theorem states that in economic environments with three or more individuals, there exists a mechanism whose Bayesian equilibria coincide with a desired collection of social choice functions if ...
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2005 This paper presents a modification of the inspection game: The ?Bayesian Monitoring? model rests on the assumption that judges are interested in enforcing compliant behavior and making correct decisions. They may base their judgements on an informative but imperfect signal which can be generated costlessly.
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WIREs Computational Statistics, 2009
AbstractBayesian networks are defined, and the chain rule for Bayesian networks is stated. Outlines of algorithms provided: inference in Bayesian networks, sensitivity analysis, EM for parameter learning, and learning structure. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.This article is categorized under:Statistical and Graphical Methods of Data ...
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AbstractBayesian networks are defined, and the chain rule for Bayesian networks is stated. Outlines of algorithms provided: inference in Bayesian networks, sensitivity analysis, EM for parameter learning, and learning structure. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.This article is categorized under:Statistical and Graphical Methods of Data ...
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2012
This chapter provides an overview of the Bayesian approach to data analysis, modeling, and statistical decision making. The topics covered go from basic concepts and definitions (random variables, Bayes' rule, prior distributions) to various models of general use in biology (hierarchical models, in particular) and ways to calibrate and use them (MCMC ...
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This chapter provides an overview of the Bayesian approach to data analysis, modeling, and statistical decision making. The topics covered go from basic concepts and definitions (random variables, Bayes' rule, prior distributions) to various models of general use in biology (hierarchical models, in particular) and ways to calibrate and use them (MCMC ...
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Philosophy of Science, 2013
A piece of folklore enjoys some currency among philosophical Bayesians, according to which Bayesian agents who, intuitively speaking, spread their credence over the entire space of available hypotheses are certain to converge to the truth. The goals of the current discussion are to show that that kernel of truth in this folklore is in some ways fairly ...
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A piece of folklore enjoys some currency among philosophical Bayesians, according to which Bayesian agents who, intuitively speaking, spread their credence over the entire space of available hypotheses are certain to converge to the truth. The goals of the current discussion are to show that that kernel of truth in this folklore is in some ways fairly ...
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2004
AbstractThis article is concerned with Bayesian epistemology. Bayesianism claims to provide a unified theory of epistemic and practical rationality based on the principle of mathematical expectation. In its epistemic guise, it requires believers to obey the laws of probability.
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AbstractThis article is concerned with Bayesian epistemology. Bayesianism claims to provide a unified theory of epistemic and practical rationality based on the principle of mathematical expectation. In its epistemic guise, it requires believers to obey the laws of probability.
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Biometrics, 1991
As a means of assessing the importance of variation in treatment effect among patient subsets, we derived posterior distributions for subset-specific treatment effects. The effects are represented by combinations of terms for treatment and treatment-by-covariate interaction effects in familiar regression models.
Dixon, Dennis O., Simon, Richard
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As a means of assessing the importance of variation in treatment effect among patient subsets, we derived posterior distributions for subset-specific treatment effects. The effects are represented by combinations of terms for treatment and treatment-by-covariate interaction effects in familiar regression models.
Dixon, Dennis O., Simon, Richard
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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 1984
Unter den Basisannahmen für Gruppenentscheidungen: Kohärenz und Rationalität der Individuen, Suche und Nutzung einer Gruppen- Nutzenfunktion, aggregierte Erwartungen hängen nicht vom konkreten Spiel ab, wird eine Darstellung der Gruppenerwartung \(p=\prod^{n}_{i=1}p_ i^{a_ i}\) gegeben. Als Konsequenzen ergeben sich ein Maß für die Nichtübereinstimmung
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Unter den Basisannahmen für Gruppenentscheidungen: Kohärenz und Rationalität der Individuen, Suche und Nutzung einer Gruppen- Nutzenfunktion, aggregierte Erwartungen hängen nicht vom konkreten Spiel ab, wird eine Darstellung der Gruppenerwartung \(p=\prod^{n}_{i=1}p_ i^{a_ i}\) gegeben. Als Konsequenzen ergeben sich ein Maß für die Nichtübereinstimmung
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