Results 51 to 60 of about 130 (129)

An observation‐driven state‐space model for claims size modelling

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract State‐space models are popular in econometrics. Recently, these models have gained some popularity in the actuarial literature. The best known state‐space models are of the Kalman‐filter type. These are called parameter‐driven because the observations do not impact the state‐space dynamics.
Jae Youn Ahn, Himchan Jeong, Mario V. Wüthrich   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

On subset least squares estimation and prediction in vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We establish the consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimators of the coefficients of a subset vector autoregressive process with exogenous variables (VARX). Using a martingale central limit theorem, we derive the asymptotic normal distribution of the estimators. Diagnostic checking is discussed using kernel‐based
Pierre Duchesne, Thanh‐Liem Huynh, Mylène Oscar   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Asymptotic properties of cross‐classified sampling designs

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We investigate the family of cross‐classified sampling designs across an arbitrary number of dimensions. We introduce a variance decomposition that enables the derivation of general asymptotic properties for these designs and the development of straightforward and asymptotically unbiased variance estimators.
Jean Rubin, Guillaume Chauvet
wiley   +1 more source

A Markov approach to credit rating migration conditional on economic states

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time‐homogeneous Markov chain. While the rating process itself possesses the Markov property only under restrictive conditions, methods ...
Michael Kalkbrener, Natalie Packham
wiley   +1 more source

Bayesian clustering of multivariate extremes

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract The asymptotic dependence structure between multivariate extreme values is fully characterized by their projections on the unit simplex. Under mild conditions, the only constraint on the resulting distributions is that their marginal means must be equal, which results in a nonparametric model that can be difficult to use in applications ...
Sonia Alouini, Anthony C. Davison
wiley   +1 more source

Joint modelling of annual precipitation maxima over several durations for the construction of intensity–duration–frequency curves

Canadian Journal of Statistics, EarlyView.
Abstract Intensity–duration–frequency curves are used by a wide range of professionals to manage the risks related to extreme rainfall. In Canada, these curves are produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada on the basis of Gumbel distributions fitted independently for each accumulation period.
Paul Mathivon, Christian Genest, Jonathan Jalbert   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting New Employment Using Nonrepresentative Online Job Advertisements With an Application to the Italian and EU Labor Market

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Using online job advertisement data improves the timeliness and granularity depth of analysis in the labor market in domains not covered by official data. Specifically, its variation over time may be used as an anticipator of official employment variations.
Pietro Giorgio Lovaglio, Mario Mezzanzanica   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source

A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Medium‐Term Covariance in Multiasset Portfolios

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting the covariance matrix of asset returns is central to portfolio construction, risk management, and asset pricing. However, most existing models struggle at medium‐term horizons, several weeks to months, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics prevail.
Pedro Reis, Ana Paula Serra, João Gama
wiley   +1 more source

Electricity Price Prediction Using Multikernel Gaussian Process Regression Combined With Kernel‐Based Support Vector Regression

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper presents a new hybrid model for predicting German electricity prices. The algorithm is based on a combination of Gaussian process regression (GPR) and support vector regression (SVR). Although GPR is a competent model for learning stochastic patterns within data and for interpolation, its performance for out‐of‐sample data is not ...
Abhinav Das, Stephan Schlüter, Lorenz Schneider   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Intraday Functional PCA Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Returns

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the functional PCA (FPCA) forecasting method in application to functions of intraday returns on Bitcoin. We show that improved interval forecasts of future return functions are obtained when the conditional heteroscedasticity of return functions is taken into account.
Joann Jasiak, Cheng Zhong
wiley   +1 more source