Memory endowed US cities and their demographic interactions [PDF]
A quantitative understanding of cities' demographic dynamics is becoming a potentially useful tool for planning sustainable growth. The concomitant theory should reveal details of the cities' past and also of its interaction with nearby urban conglomerates for providing a reasonably complete picture.
arxiv +1 more source
Physicists in times of war [PDF]
Though the majority of physicists would probably not support preemptive wars, nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction would not exist without their contributions. Einstein's anti-militaristic position has been well-documented and the present essay recalls the role of some contemporary and past physicists on this issue.
arxiv
Simulating the Spread of Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919 Considering the Effect of the First World War [PDF]
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919, also called Spanish Flu Pandemic, was one of the severest pandemics in history. It is thought that the First World War much influenced the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, we model the pandemic considering both civil and military traffic.
arxiv
Measuring Territorial Control in Civil Wars Using Hidden Markov Models: A Data Informatics-Based Approach [PDF]
Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts.
arxiv
Understanding Civil War Violence through Military Intelligence: Mining Civilian Targeting Records from the Vietnam War [PDF]
Military intelligence is underutilized in the study of civil war violence. Declassified records are hard to acquire and difficult to explore with the standard econometrics toolbox. I investigate a contemporary government database of civilians targeted during the Vietnam War. The data are detailed, with up to 45 attributes recorded for 73,712 individual
arxiv
MAD with Aliens? Interstellar deterrence and its implications [PDF]
The possibility that extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) could be hostile to humanity has been raised as a reason to avoid even trying to contact ETIs. However, there is a distinct shortage of analytical discussion about the risks of an attack, perhaps because of an implicit premise that we cannot analyze the decision making of an alien civilization.
arxiv +1 more source
Political Stability and Military Intervention in Egypt [PDF]
Policy choices in the wake of recent mass protests in Egypt will determine the likelihood of civil war in the short run and the prospects for democracy in the long run. Economic conditions can be improved by international action to reduce grain-based biofuel production and finance employment generation.
arxiv
A New Lotka-Volterra Model of Competition With Strategic Aggression -- Civil Wars When Strategy Comes Into Play [PDF]
In this monograph, we introduce a new model in population dynamics that describes two species sharing the same environmental resources in a situation of open hostility. The interactions among these populations are described not in terms of random encounters, but via the strategic decisions of one population that can attack the other according to ...
arxiv
Geolocating Political Events in Text [PDF]
This work introduces a general method for automatically finding the locations where political events in text occurred. Using a novel set of 8,000 labeled sentences, I create a method to link automatically extracted events and locations in text. The model achieves human level performance on the annotation task and outperforms previous event geolocation ...
arxiv
Forecasting the 2017-2018 Yemen Cholera Outbreak with Machine Learning [PDF]
The ongoing Yemen cholera outbreak has been deemed one of the worst cholera outbreaks in history, with over a million people impacted and thousands dead. Triggered by a civil war, the outbreak has been shaped by various political, environmental, and epidemiological factors and continues to worsen.
arxiv