Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results [PDF]
Monthly Weather Review, 1974 This paper describes the results of an experiment involving credible interval temperature forecasts. A credible interval is an interval of values of the variable of concern, in this case maximum or minimum temperature, accompanied by a probability which ...
Murphy, A.H., Winkler, R.L.
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Systematic review and network meta-analysis on the efficacy of evolocumab and other therapies for the management of lipid levels in hyperlipidemia [PDF]
Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease, 2017 Background: The proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors evolocumab and alirocumab substantially reduce low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL‐C) when added to statin therapy in patients who need additional LDL‐C reduction ...
Bray, Sarah +13 more
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The relation between frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals [PDF]
, 2012 We investigate the relation between frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Namely, we find the "frequentist" Bayes prior _{f}( ,x_{obs}) = -\frac{\int_{-\infty}^{x_{obs}}\frac{\partial f(x, )}{\partial }dx}{f(x_{obs}, )} (here f(x, ) is the probability density) for which the results of frequentist and Bayes approaches to the determination of ...
S. I. Bitioukov, Nikolai Krasnikov
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Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis [PDF]
Statistics in Medicine, 2017 Recently developed methods of longitudinal discriminant analysis allow for classification of subjects into prespecified prognostic groups using longitudinal history of both continuous and discrete biomarkers. The classification uses Bayesian estimates of the group membership probabilities for each prognostic group.
David M. Hughes +4 more
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Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: local credible intervals [PDF]
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2019 ABSTRACT Until recently, mass-mapping techniques for weak gravitational lensing convergence reconstruction have lacked a principled statistical framework upon which to quantify reconstruction uncertainties, without making strong assumptions of Gaussianity.
Matt A. Price +4 more
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Fuzzy Prediction Intervals Using Credibility Distributions [PDF]
The 7th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, 2021 We present a new forecasting scheme based on the credibility distribution of fuzzy events. This approach allows us to build prediction intervals using the first differences of the time series data. Additionally, the credibility expected value enables us to estimate the k-step-ahead pointwise forecasts.
Enriqueta Vercher +2 more
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Credible intervals for nanoparticle characteristics [PDF]
Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, 2012 Abstract Solving the inverse problem of nanoparticle characterization has the potential to advance science and benefit society. While considerable progress has been made within a framework based on the scattering of surface plasmon-polaritons, an aspect not heretofore considered is the quantification of uncertainty in the estimation of a nanoparticle
Charnigo, R. +5 more
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Calibrated Bayesian credible intervals for binomial proportions [PDF]
Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 2019 Drawbacks of traditional approximate (Wald test-based) and exact (Clopper-Pearson) confidence intervals for a binomial proportion are well-recognized. Alternatives include an interval based on inverting the score test, adaptations of exact testing, and Bayesian credible intervals derived from uniform or Jeffreys beta priors. We recommend a new interval
Robert H. Lyles +2 more
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The direct and indirect impact of comorbidity on the survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer:a combination of survival, staging and resection models with missing measurements in covariates [PDF]
, 2014 OBJECTIVE: To examine the direct and indirect impact of comorbidity on the survival. DESIGN: A historical cohort study. SETTING: Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: All patients with non-small cell lung cancer who were registered in the Danish Lung Cancer Registry in
Green, Anders +2 more
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Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum [PDF]
, 2010 Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model.
Andrew R. Liddle +6 more
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