Water Research XCascade-dam systems impose repeated hydrological discontinuities that convert a river continuum into alternating reservoir–river segments, enhancing environmental heterogeneity and longitudinal gradients beyond the influence of a single dam.
Rongchao He +6 more
doaj +1 more source
Climate change‐driven expansion of goosegrass highlights risks to global food production
Pest Management Science, EarlyView.Climate change is expanding the climatic suitability of Eleusine indica into temperate agricultural regions, increasing its overlap with major soybean and maize production areas. These findings highlight a growing global threat to food security and the need for proactive weed management strategies.
Thiago Deomar Ludwig +4 more
wiley +1 more source
Model Selection, Forecasting and Monthly Seasonality of Hotel Nights in Denmark [PDF]
Foreigners’ demand for hotel nights in Denmark by nationality are examined using monthly time series covering 30years, and divided into 11 nationalities. Special attention is given to the role of seasonality.
Nils Karl Sørensen
core
Stochastic and deterministic drivers of seasonal variation of fungal community in tobacco field soil
PeerJ, 2019 Background The soil fungal community plays an important role in global carbon cycling and shows obvious seasonal variations, however, drivers, particularly stochastic drivers, of the seasonal variation in the fungal community have never been addressed in sufficient detail.
Xing Li +8 more
openaire +3 more sources
Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical–dynamical approach
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.This study explores how the atmospheric state at initialisation creates windows of opportunity for improving week 3 forecasts of weather regime activity. Greenland blocking activity increases following Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 7, 8, and 1 and weak stratospheric polar vortex states, revealing patterns exploitable by statistical models.
Fabian Mockert +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Is There Seasonality in Pakistan’s Merchandise Exports and Imports? The Univariate Modelling Approach [PDF]
This paper investigates the existence of seasonal patterns in the quarterly merchandise export and import data of Pakistan from 1982: 1 to 2002: 1.
Sajjad Akhtar
core
Modeling of GRACE-Derived Groundwater Information in the Colorado River Basin [PDF]
, 2019 Groundwater depletion has been one of the major challenges in recent years. Analysis of groundwater levels can be beneficial for groundwater management.
Ahmad, Sajjad +3 more
core +2 more sources
Assessing the impact of model biases on subseasonal forecast skill
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.Relaxation experiments where the nudging was performed towards bias‐corrected integrations of the same model display significantly improved skill at weeks 3 and 4, particularly in the northern extratropics. This indicates that there is a large potential for improving dynamical subseasonal forecasting skill by improved treatment of model biases.
Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda
wiley +1 more source
Pricing in electricity markets : a mean reverting jump diffusion model with seasonality. [PDF]
In this paper we present a mean-reverting jump diffusion model for the electricity spot price and derive the corresponding forward in closed-form. Based on historical spot data and forward data from England and Wales we calibrate the model and present ...
Cartea, Álvaro, Figueroa, Marcelo G.
core +3 more sources
The forecasting performance of various models for seasonality and nonlinearity for quarterly industrial production [PDF]
Seasonality often accounts for the major part of quarterly or monthly movements in detrended macro-economic time series. In addition, business cycle nonlinearity is a prominent feature of many such series too.
Dijk, D.J.C. van, Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
core +1 more source