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Stochastic Simulation Model for Forecasting Index‐Linked Public Expenditure

open access: yesPublic Budgeting &Finance, Volume 46, Issue 2, Page 47-67, Summer 2026.
Abstract This paper introduces a system dynamics (SD) model for analyzing public sector cost growth, where costs are tied to indices. The SD model isolates the effects of automatic indexation, providing probabilistic projections of expenditure growth. It enables testing of alternative indexation strategies and cost‐reduction measures. Findings show how
Miia Rissanen   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Estimating DSGE model parameters in a small open economy: Do real-time data matter?

open access: yesReview of Economic Perspectives, 2015
This paper investigates the differences between parameters estimated using real-time and those estimated with revised data. The models used are New Keynesian DSGE models of the Czech, Polish, Hungarian, Swiss, and Swedish small open economies in ...
Capek Jan
doaj   +1 more source

A Proposal for a Flexible Trend Specification in DSGE Models

open access: yesReview of Economic Perspectives, 2016
In this paper I propose a flexible trend specification for estimating DSGE models on log differences. I demonstrate this flexible trend specification on a New Keynesian DSGE model of two economies, which I consequently estimate on data from the Czech ...
Slanicay Martin
doaj   +1 more source

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