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Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations. [PDF]
PLoS ONE, 2018 MOTIVATION AND METHOD:Existing rational expectations models cannot satisfactorily explain why political budget manipulations systematically raise re-election chances and only occur in "specific contexts".
Frank Bohn
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Rational expectations and near rational alternatives: How best to form expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2001 Learning rules are increasingly being used in macroeconomic models. However one criticism that has been levelled at this assumption is that the choice of variables for inclusion in the learning rule, and the actual specification of the learning rule ...
Beeby, Mike +2 more
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Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2018 Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades.
Jan R. Magnus +2 more
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A new perspective to rational expectations: maximin rational expectations equilibrium [PDF]
, 2010 We introduce a new notion of rational expectations equilibrium (REE) called maximin rational expectations equilibrium (MREE), which is based on the maximin expected utility (MEU) formulation.
Marialaura Pesce +2 more
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A Case Where Barro Expectations Are Not Rational [PDF]
Economics: Journal Articles, 2012 This note generalizes Feldstein’s (1976) criticism of Barro’s(1974) analysis for the case that the interest rate exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents hold “Barro expectations”: they believe that
Ekkehart Schlicht
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Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011 The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth’s “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young.
Kevin D. Hoover, Warren Young
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Dropping rational expectations [PDF]
Mathematical Social Sciences, 2022 The authors consider a two-period pure-exchange economy, where uncertainty prevails and agents, possibly asymmetrically informed, exchange commodities and securities of all kinds. Consumers' characteristics, anticipations, beliefs and actions are all private and typically not known nor assessed by the other agents. In the paper is defined a notion of ``
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Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests
Quantitative Economics, 2021 In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched.
D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier +2 more
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Assumptions, Applications and Implications of Modern Economic Analysis in Comprehending Neo-Classical Economics [PDF]
Social Science Chronicle, 2022 This research paper delves into the foundational principles, assumptions, applications, and limitations of neoclassical economics, presenting a comprehensive exploration of its significance in economic analysis, policy formulation, and the understanding ...
Nicole Dubois
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The dual role of equilibrium price in competitive economies with asymmetric information [PDF]
Ekonomski Anali, 2008 This paper analyses equilibrium in competitive markets with asymmetrically informed agents. In contrast to Walrasian equilibrium, where equilibrium price is only an indicator of relative scarcity, in the models studied in this paper equilibrium price has
Trifunović Dejan
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