Results 11 to 20 of about 1,246,539 (256)
Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2018 Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades.
Jan R. Magnus +2 more
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Dropping rational expectations [PDF]
Mathematical Social Sciences, 2022 The authors consider a two-period pure-exchange economy, where uncertainty prevails and agents, possibly asymmetrically informed, exchange commodities and securities of all kinds. Consumers' characteristics, anticipations, beliefs and actions are all private and typically not known nor assessed by the other agents. In the paper is defined a notion of ``
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Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests
Quantitative Economics, 2021 In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched.
D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier +2 more
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Identifying and Solving Multivariate Rational Expectations Models (Updated: 01/2005) [PDF]
, 2004 This article discuses the identification of Generalised Rational Expectations Models. It is shown that the necessary and sufficient conditions for local identification of the Quasi-Structural Form (Q-SF) derive from the first derivatives of the Non ...
Ioannidis, C, Hunter, J
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Are inflation expectations rational? [PDF]
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008 Abstract Several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an interpretation.
David Andolfatto +2 more
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Are rational expectations really rational? [PDF]
Economics Letters, 1992 Abstract This article investigates whether ‘rational expectations’ are really rational, i.e. whether they maximize agents' utilities in some way. For that purpose we construct a model where each agent may have a whole array of expectations schemes, including the rational expectations one.
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The Rationality of Expectations Formation [PDF]
The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, 2016 AbstractRational expectations are not required to follow from beliefs that explain well history, but just to correctly foresee the future. As a consequence, at a rational expectations equilibrium, the agents’ expectations may follow from beliefs that explain poorly the observed history, even among those rationalizing their choices.
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Frontiers in Physics, 2020 We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of [1, 2]. In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, among a heterogenous population of agents, it is ...
Hyun-U Sohn +2 more
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Inattention in individual expectations
EconomiA, 2017 This paper investigates the expectations formation process of economic agents about inflation rate. Using the Market Expectations System of Central Bank of Brazil, we perceive that agents do not update their forecasts every period and that even agents ...
Yara de Almeida Campos Cordeiro +2 more
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Testes de racionalidade para loterias no Brasil
Economia Aplicada, 2006 O artigo investiga a prevalência de expectativas racionais no caso de duas loterias brasileiras (Quina e Mega-Sena). A estratégia de teste se relaciona com uma condição de ortogonalidade entre o erro condicional de previsão e o conjunto de informação ...
Marcos A. M. Lima, Marcelo Resende
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