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Dynamics of non-self-similar earthquakes illuminated by a controlled fault asperity. [PDF]
Nat CommunOkubo K, Yamashita F, Fukuyama E.
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Machine learning predicts meter-scale laboratory earthquakes. [PDF]
Nat CommunNorisugi R, Kaneko Y, Rouet-Leduc B.
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Forecasting earthquakes and earthquake risk
International Journal of Forecasting, 1995This paper reviews issues, models, and methodologies arising out of the problems of predicting earthquakes and forecasting earthquake risk. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within specified time, space, and magnitude windows.
David Vere-Jones
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Forecasting Southern California Earthquakes
Science, 1982Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such an event is now 13 percent in California.
Raleigh, C. B. +3 more
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Bayesian Forecast Evaluation and Ensemble Earthquake Forecasting
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2012The assessment of earthquake forecast models for practical purposes requires more than simply checking model consistency in a statistical framework. One also needs to understand how to construct the best model for specific forecasting applications. We describe a Bayesian approach to evaluating earthquake forecasting models, and we consider related ...
Marzocchi, W. +2 more
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Forecasting Earthquakes: The RELM Test
Computing in Science & Engineering, 2012Earthquakes don't have precursors that can be reliably used for earthquake prediction. However, distributions of earthquakes (seismicity) can be used to forecast an earthquake hazard. These distributions in space, time, and magnitude can be studied in a variety of ways.
Michael Sachs +3 more
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Temporal earthquake forecasting
2022Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) can detect patterns that are otherwise difficult to identify and have been shown to excel in predicting fault characteristics in laboratory shear experiments and slow slip \emph{in situ}. Here we show that during the precursory phase of some natural earthquakes, a subtle change in the seismic ...
Veda Lye Sim Ong +3 more
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Operational Earthquake Forecasting Can Enhance Earthquake Preparedness
Seismological Research Letters, 2014We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity.
Jordan, T. H. +3 more
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Speculations on Earthquake Forecasting
Seismological Research Letters, 2003A new understanding of the way fluid-saturated microcracked rocks deform suggests that networks of stress-monitoring sites could lead to earthquake forecasting analogous to the way networks of meteorological stations allow weather forecasting and prediction of storms.
S. Crampin +4 more
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Systematic Earthquake Forecast
Физика Земли / Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid EarthA computer-based method for systematic earthquake forecasting is discussed. The forecast is calculated regularly and over a fixed time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone where the epicenters of target earthquakes are expected. A forecast is considered successful if all the epicenters of target earthquakes within the given interval fall ...
V. G. Gitis, A. B. Derendyaev
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