Results 241 to 250 of about 35,599 (288)

Operational Earthquake Forecasting Can Enhance Earthquake Preparedness

Seismological Research Letters, 2014
We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity.
Jordan, T. H., Marzocchi, W., Michael, A. J., Gerstenberger, M. C.   +3 more
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Bayesian Forecast Evaluation and Ensemble Earthquake Forecasting

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2012
The assessment of earthquake forecast models for practical purposes requires more than simply checking model consistency in a statistical framework. One also needs to understand how to construct the best model for specific forecasting applications. We describe a Bayesian approach to evaluating earthquake forecasting models, and we consider related ...
Marzocchi, W., Douglas Zechar, J., Jordan, T. H.   +2 more
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Systematic Earthquake Forecast

Физика Земли / Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth
A computer-based method for systematic earthquake forecasting is discussed. The forecast is calculated regularly and over a fixed time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone where the epicenters of target earthquakes are expected. A forecast is considered successful if all the epicenters of target earthquakes within the given interval fall ...
V. G. Gitis, A. B. Derendyaev
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Worldwide earthquake forecasts

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2016
We review global earthquake forecast as it was developed by our UCLA Group since 1970s. We discuss the new results on earthquake magnitude/moment distribution, especially the determination of maximum/corner moment magnitude. Recent successes of global geodetic surveys allow us to construct a high resolution map of the Earth surface displacement and ...
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Stress-forecasting Earthquakes

Seismological Research Letters, 1999
In recent Opinions in Seismological Research Letters Paul Silver has suggested that earthquake prediction is not possible, whereas Lowell S. Whiteside suggests that it is. Earthquake prediction means many things. There are at least three types of (conventional) earthquake prediction. Deterministic prediction is where the behavior before the earthquake (
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Speculations on Earthquake Forecasting

Seismological Research Letters, 2003
A new understanding of the way fluid-saturated microcracked rocks deform suggests that networks of stress-monitoring sites could lead to earthquake forecasting analogous to the way networks of meteorological stations allow weather forecasting and prediction of storms.
S. Crampin, Y. Gao, S. Chastin, S. Peacock, P. Jackson   +4 more
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Towards Slow Earthquakes Forecasting

2020
<p>Slow Slip Events (SSEs) are episodic slip events that play a significant role in the moment budget along subduction megathrust. They share many similarities with regular earthquakes, and have been observed in major subduction regions like, for example, Cascadia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand.
Adriano Gualandi, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Sylvain Michel, Davide Faranda   +3 more
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Earthquake and its forecasting

GeoJournal, 1980
Present status of earthquake prediction and warning is reviewed with special emphasis on the “Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act” in Japan. Following possible regionalization of occurrences of a great earthquake by means of historical data analysis and crustal strain monitoring, statistics of earthquake precursors are presented along with the ...
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Forecasting for Largest Earthquakes

Management Science, 1974
The primary concern of this paper is the establishment of a forecasting procedure for largest earthquake magnitudes of the next n years. It is shown that the use of the third-type asymptotic distribution of the largest values as an approximation to the exact distribution provides for an expression for the expected value and the mode of the largest ...
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Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses

Tectonophysics, 2001
Abstract This paper outlines methodological aspects of the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecast hypotheses. The recent debates concerning predictability of earthquakes clearly show how this problem is centred on the difficulty of systematically testing the numerous methodologies that in the years have been proposed and sustained by the ...
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