Results 151 to 160 of about 428 (196)

Diagnosing the 11‐year solar cycle's influence on the East Atlantic pattern

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
A previously unidentified solar‐cycle response in the East Atlantic pattern is found in late winter at lag +3 years with larger amplitude than the NAO response. A statistically significant NAO response to the solar cycle is seen in late winter at lag 0 years.
Stergios Misios, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Hedi Ma   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

A multimodel intercomparison study of variable‐resolution global models with grid refinement over the Arctic and Antarctic

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We document the protocol and first results from the first ever coordinated multimodel variable‐resolution experiment set with refinement over the polar regions. We find that the refinement generally yields model‐dependent effects. The most consistent improvement is an amelioration of the upper‐level cold bias in the polar regions that translates into ...
Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Raphael Köhler, Xavier Levine, René R. Wijngaard, Gareth J. Marshall, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Ryan S. Williams, Priscilla A. Mooney   +8 more
wiley   +1 more source

Towards improving Arctic mixed‐phase cloud representation in the ECMWF model using MOSAiC observations

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Abstract The presence of Arctic clouds plays a crucial role in the evolution of the surface temperature of Arctic sea ice. However, large biases in cloud representation remain in state‐of‐the‐art weather and climate models. In this study, we use observational data from the one‐year Arctic ship campaign Multi‐disciplinary drifting Observatory for the ...
Luise Schulte, Richard Forbes, Linus Magnusson, Vera Schemann, Jonathan Day, Susanne Crewell   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Evaluating anisotropy‐based Monin–Obukhov similarity theory over canopies and complex terrain

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study shows that an anisotropy‐based generalization of Monin–Obukhov surface‐layer scaling (SC23) applies readily across a wide range of atmospheric conditions with variable terrain, canopies, and land‐cover complexity. This work focuses on the scaling of velocity variances for 7 years at the 47 sites in the National Ecological Observation Network
Tyler S. Waterman, Ivana Stiperski, Nathaniel Chaney, Marc Calaf   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty quantification in weather and climate models

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties over time on weather and climate time‐scales, estimated through ensembles that sample aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty using Bayesian neural networks for parameterisations in the Lorenz 1996 model. The spread shows the 16th and 84th percentiles.
Laura A. Mansfield, Hannah M. Christensen   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source

Eddic style

Brittany Schorn
core   +1 more source

How interference between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical Indo‐Pacific convection modulates wave trains along the subtropical jet: Impacts on the Asian winter climate

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study reveals that the combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and anomalous Indo‐Pacific Walker circulation on the excitation of the wave train along the wintertime subtropical jet strongly depend on their phase combination. Their impacts interfere constructively or destructively over South Asia, leading to notable differences in
Yuki Asazuma, Masaya Kuramochi, Hiroaki Ueda   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Ensemble reliability and the signal‐to‐noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We derive a general expression for the ratio of predictable components (RPC) in terms of correlation, spread–error ratio, and total variance ratio. Physical constraints on the admissible solutions (i.e., real‐valued and non‐negative variances) provide a mechanism to identify statistically paradoxical sample combinations of reliability and correlation ...
Christopher D. Roberts, Frederic Vitart
wiley   +1 more source

The role of mesoscale weather effects in simulating pyroconvection: A case study of the Santa Coloma de Queralt wildfire

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This large‐eddy simulation study on pyroconvection shows that the added value from resolving the mesoscale explicitly is found in the timing of pyrocumulus formation and circulation changes. The circulation of the convective plume itself is not substantially different between the simulations. Abstract Extreme wildfire events are characterised by strong
Koen van der Aa, Bernard Postema, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Tristan Roelofs, Harm Jonker   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Numerical simulation and physical understanding of a locally initiated sea fog event over the eastern Yellow Sea with a transition of air–sea temperature difference

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Unexpected sea fog in the west coast of South Korea had a huge impact on the transportations in the Seoul–Incheon metropolitan area. We reproduced successfully the formation and evolution of a sea event with a transition of air–sea temperature difference using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Jeonghoe Kim, Jung‐Hoon Kim, Clive E. Dorman, Harindra J. S. Fernando   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source