Results 91 to 100 of about 3,807 (197)

Principle of Uncertain Future [PDF]

open access: yes
The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains a degree of (hidden) uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty (in a sense, similar to vibrations, fluctuations) pushes the probability value back from the bounds to the ...
Alexander Harin
core  

Subjective Expected Utility Theory with “Small Worlds” [PDF]

open access: yes
We model the notion of a "small world" as a context dependent state space embedded into the "grand world". For each situation the decision maker creates a "small world" reflecting the events perceived to be relevant for the act under consideration.
Frank Hansen, Jacob Gyntelberg
core  

States, models and information: A reconsideration of Ellsberg's paradox

open access: yes, 2006
We show that a general process of decision making involves uncertainty about two different sets: the domain of the acts and another set, which we call the set of models for the decision maker. We study the effect of different information structures on the set of models, and prove the existence of a dichotomy: either the decision maker's ranking of the ...
openaire   +2 more sources

Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle [PDF]

open access: yes
This paper argues that Ellsberg’s and Shackle’s frameworks for discussing the limits of the (subjective) probabilistic approach to decision theory are not as different as they may appear.
Carlo Zappia, Marcello Basili
core  

Updating preferences with multiple priors [PDF]

open access: yes
We propose and axiomatically characterize dynamically consistent update rules for decision making under ambiguity. These rules apply to the preferences with multiple priors of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), and are the first, for any model of preferences ...
Hanany, Eran, Klibanoff, Peter
core   +1 more source

Ambiguity [PDF]

open access: yes
Ambiguity refers to a decision situation under uncertainty when there is incomplete information about the likelihood of events. Different formal models of this notion have been developed with differing implications about the representation of ambiguity ...
David Kelsey, Jürgen Eichberger
core   +3 more sources

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