Results 21 to 30 of about 3,054,124 (254)

Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model [PDF]

, 2009
While the foundations of modern epidemiology are based upon deterministic models with homogeneous mixing, it is being increasingly realized that both spatial structure and stochasticity play major roles in shaping epidemic dynamics.
Dangerfield, C. E., Ross, Joshua V., Dangerfield, C., Keeling, Matthew James, Ross, J.   +4 more
core   +1 more source

Pair-based likelihood approximations for stochastic epidemic models [PDF]

, 2021
Fitting stochastic epidemic models to data is a non-standard problem because data on the infection processes defined in such models are rarely observed directly. This in turn means that the likelihood of the observed data is intractable in the sense that
Kypraios, Theodore, Stockdale, Jessica E., O'Neill, Philip D.   +2 more
core   +1 more source

The Effects of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies [PDF]

, 2014
Background School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies. Objectives To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation ...
Babatunde Olowokure (226511), Hawker, Jeremy, Charlotte Jackson (565035), Emilia Vynnycky (565037), Babatunde Olowokure, Vynnycky, E, Olowokure, B, Punam Mangtani (160220), Jeremy Hawker, Hawker, J, Charlotte Jackson, Punam Mangtani, Jeremy Hawker (565036), Mangtani, P, Olowokure, Babatunde, Jackson, C, Emilia Vynnycky, Jackson, Charlotte, Mangtani, Punam, Vynnycky, Emilia   +19 more
core   +1 more source

COVID-19 Spread Simulation in a Crowd Intelligence Network

International Journal of Crowd Science, 2022
In this paper, the Crowd Intelligence Network Model is applied to the simulation of epidemic spread. This model combines the multi-layer coupling network model and the two-stage feedback member model to study the epidemic spread mechanisms under multiple-
Linzhi Shan, Hongbo Sun
doaj   +1 more source

Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus under strict social restrictions

Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, EarlyView., 2021
We formulate a simple susceptible‐infectious‐recovery (SIR) model to describe the spread of the coronavirus under strict social restrictions. The transmission rate in this model is exponentially decreasing with time. We find a formula for basic reproduction function and estimate the maximum number of daily infected individuals.
Mo'tassem Al‐arydah, Hailay Berhe, Khalid Dib, Kalyanasundaram Madhu   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: A spectral method [PDF]

Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2015
Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes.
Samuel P.C. Brand, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Keeling   +2 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions

Mathematics, 2021
At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country’s production and people’s daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world.
Qingqing Ji, Xu Zhao, Hanlin Ma, Qing Liu, Yiwen Liu, Qiyue Guan   +5 more
doaj   +1 more source

Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models [PDF]

, 2012
The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies.
Michael J. Tildesley (123224), Tildesley, Michael J., Ryan Sadie J., Tildesley Michael J., Sadie J Ryan, Ryan, Sadie J., Sadie J. Ryan (24547), Michael J Tildesley   +7 more
core   +1 more source

War-driven displacement and COVID-19 in Poland: simulation study using LSTM model

Радіоелектронні і комп'ютерні системи
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to Europe’s largest and fastest displacement since World War II. Poland received the largest inflow. Rapid movement can affect COVID-19 spread and stress testing, reporting, and vaccination systems.
Mykola Butkevych, Ievgen Meniailov, Yaroslav Lutsiv, Bohdan Kraivskyi, Dmytro Chumachenko   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

Suspected Close Contacts as the Pilot Indicator of the Growth Trend of Confirmed Population During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Simulation Approach

Infectious Microbes & Diseases, 2020
. Regarding to the actual situation of the new coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic, social factors should be taken into account and the increasing growth trend of confirmed populations needs to be explained. A proper model needs to be established, not only
Sisi Huang, Anding Zhu, Yan Wang, Yancong Xu, Lu Li, Dexing Kong, Stijn van der Veen   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source