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Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Modeling

Volume 8: 22nd Reliability, Stress Analysis, and Failure Prevention Conference; 25th Conference on Mechanical Vibration and Noise, 2013
One major difficulty that exists in reconciling model predictions of a system with experimental measurements is assessing and accounting for the uncertainties in the system. There are several enumerated sources of uncertainty in model prediction of physical phenomena, the primary ones being: 1) Model form error, 2) Aleatoric uncertainty of model ...
Daniel J. Segalman   +4 more
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Epistemic Uncertainties in Decision Making

24th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering: Volume 2, 2005
The present paper reviews and outlines the interpretation of uncertainties with a view to the various different categorizations introduced in the literature. A framework is then presented for risk based decision making taking basis in the Bayesian decision theory and recent methodical developments in risk assessment.
Michael Havbro Faber, Marc A. Maes
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The Role of Epistemic Uncertainty in Risk Analysis

2010
The notion of uncertainty has been a controversial issue for a long time. In particular the prominence of probability theory in the scientific arena has blurred some distinctions that were present from its inception, namely between uncertainty due to the variability of physical phenomena, and uncertainty due to a lack of information.
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Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification

2015
In this paper, an effort has been made to combine aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in risk models. We have combined probabilistic distributions, generalized fuzzy numbers, and completely generalized interval valued fuzzy numbers.
Palash Dutta, Tazid Ali
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Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop

Reliable Computing, 2002
William Oberkampf   +4 more
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Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling: The-state-of-the-art

2015
This paper is about the state-of-the-art of epistemic uncertainty modeling from subjective probability (Thomas Bayes) to fuzzy measures (Michio Sugeno).
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The anxious inquirer : emotions and epistemic uncertainty

L'enquêteur anxieux : émotions et incertitude épistémique En épistémologie, des développements récents ont conduit à considérer que les états affectifs sont des facteurs pertinents dans l'étude de la connaissance. Je me concentrerai précisément sur l'attitude épistémique du doute, dans la mesure où elle est liée à la réaction ...
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Multi-objective Optimization of Problems with Epistemic Uncertainty

2005
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) have proven to be a powerful tool for global optimization purposes of deterministic problem functions. Yet, in many real-world problems, uncertainty about the correctness of the system model and environmental factors does not allow to determine clear objective values.
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Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2004
Jon C. Helton, William Oberkampf
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Reasoning with uncertainty and epistemic modals

2014
My dissertation presents complementary views of reasoning with uncertainty and communicating in situations of reasoning with uncertainty. Reasoning with uncertainty proceeds from the possibilities an agent takes as options, rather than those that are merely consistent with her information or that she has positive credence in.
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