Results 161 to 170 of about 203,104 (277)

Coherent Forecasting of Realized Volatility

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT The QLIKE loss function is the stylized favorite of the literature on volatility forecasting when it comes to out‐of‐sample evaluation and the state of the art model for realized volatility (RV) forecasting is the HAR model, which minimizes the squared error loss for in‐sample estimation of the parameters.
Marius Puke, Karsten Schweikert
wiley   +1 more source

Using DSGE and Machine Learning to Forecast Public Debt for France

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting public debt is essential for effective policymaking and economic stability, yet traditional approaches face challenges due to data scarcity. While machine learning (ML) has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, its application to macroeconomic forecasting remains underexplored, hindered by short historical time series and ...
Emmanouil Sofianos   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

DSGE Model Forecasting: Rational Expectations Versus Adaptive Learning

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper compares within‐sample and out‐of‐sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets, and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real‐time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1–2019Q4.
Anders Warne
wiley   +1 more source

Household Consumption Intentions by Income Group During Monetary Policy Easing and Tightening

open access: yesInternational Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We investigate how the monetary policy interest rate affects Brazilian households' consumption intentions under two distinct regimes: monetary easing and tightening cycles. Using data from low‐ and high‐income households, we assess both the magnitude and the dynamics of this relationship.
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source

On Kotzig's Perfect Set Problem of Hamiltonian Cycle Decompositions of the Complete Graph

open access: yesJournal of Combinatorial Designs, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT A Hamiltonian cycle decomposition (HCD) of K n ${K}_{n}$ is a set of Hamiltonian cycles in which each 1‐path of K n ${K}_{n}$ appears exactly once. A Dudeney set of K n ${K}_{n}$ is a set of Hamiltonian cycles in which each 2‐path of K n ${K}_{n}$ appears exactly once.
Nobuaki Mutoh
wiley   +1 more source

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