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EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS [PDF]
Annals of the University of Oradea: Economic Science, 2011 Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates.
Dezsi Eva, Fat Codruta Maria
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Complex exponential smoothing [PDF]
, 2016 Exponential smoothing is one of the most popular forecasting methods in practice. It has been used and researched for more than half a century. It started as an ad-hoc forecasting method and developed to a family of state-space models. Still all exponential smoothing methods are based on time series decomposition and the usage of such components as ...
Svetunkov, Ivan +2 more
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Prediction of settlement based on fusion model of Kalman filter and exponential smoothing algorithm
Yantu gongcheng xuebao, 2021 It is difficult to predict the settlement trend and to assess the stability of the settlement due to the large fluctuation and strong discreteness of the settlement monitoring data with noise, and the parameters of the conventional prediction models ...
YU Yong-tang 1, 2, ZHENG Jian-guo 1, 2, ZHANG Ji-wen 1, 3, HUANG Xin 2, XU Wen-tao 2
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On Holt Winters Algorithm with Decomposition for Forecasting Financial Time Series with Complex Seasonal Patterns [PDF]
Maǧallaẗ Al-Buḥūṯ Al-Mālīyyaẗ wa Al-TiğāriyyaẗOne of the most important challenges when analyzing and forecasting the time series is the stability of the series and determining components of the time series such as trend and seasonal.
منى نزيه على عبد البارى
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Smooth transition exponential smoothing [PDF]
Journal of Forecasting, 2004 AbstractAdaptive exponential smoothing methods allow a smoothing parameter to change over time, in order to adapt to changes in the characteristics of the time series. However, these methods have tended to produce unstable forecasts and have performed poorly in empirical studies.
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An Improvement Single Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting in Time Series [PDF]
المجلة العراقية للعلوم الاحصائية, 2010 In this paper we describe single exponential smoothing method, which is used in time series forecasting, and suggest an improving to the single exponential smoothing method through adding the mean of the first differences for the time series for all ...
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Observation‐driven exponential smoothing
Stat, 2023 This article presents an approach to forecasting count time series with a form of exponential smoothing built from observation‐driven models. The proposed method is easy to implement and simple to interpret. A variant of the approach is also proposed to handle the impact of outliers on the forecast.
Dimitris Karlis +2 more
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Patria Artha Technological Journal, 2021 Indonesia is a country with a population of 270.20 million people recorded at the Central Statistics Agency in September 2020. Based on the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) reported, the United Nations (UN) body, the number of world internet ...
Nabila Rizqia Novianda +2 more
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Uneven time series forecasting using a modified exponential smoothing method [PDF]
E3S Web of ConferencesThe article is devoted to the problem of forecasting time series with an uneven distribution of observations over time. The exponential smoothing model is used as the basic forecasting model, in which the variable weights of observations decrease ...
Mironov A.N. +4 more
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Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI), 2023 The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method utilizes three smoothing parameters, namely alpha (α), beta (β), and gamma (γ), which have a significant impact on the accuracy of the forecasting process.
I Putu Susila Handika +1 more
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