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Fuzzy failure probability estimation applying intervening variables

, 2020
Fuzzy probability offers a framework for taking into account the effects of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty on the performance of a system, quantifying its level of safety, for example, in terms of a fuzzy failure probability.
M. Valdebenito   +4 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Efficient methods by active learning Kriging coupled with variance reduction based sampling methods for time-dependent failure probability

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2019
For efficiently estimating the time-dependent failure probability, two new methods named as the active learning Kriging (AK) coupled with importance sampling (AK-co-IS) and AK coupled with subset simulation (AK-co-SS) are proposed.
Chunyan Ling, Zhenzhou Lu, Xianming Zhu
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Abstracting from failure probabilities

Proceedings Second International Conference on Application of Concurrency to System Design, 2002
In fault-tolerant computing, dependability of systems is usually demonstrated by abstracting from failure probabilities (under simplifying assumptions on failure occurrences). In the specification framework Focus, we show under which conditions and to which extent this is sound: We use a specification language that is interpreted in the usual abstract ...
openaire   +1 more source

System Failure Probability Modelling

2015
We examine the logical probabilistic modelling of a complex system’s blocks failures with the considerations of the connections between the blocks, based on the logical linguistic approach. We describe the modelling procedure, implementing the logical probabilistic and logical linguistic modelling approaches.
V. Y. Ziniakov   +2 more
openaire   +1 more source

Small failure probability: principles, progress and perspectives

Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, 2022
Design of structural and multidisciplinary systems under uncertainties requires estimation of their reliability or equivalently the probability of failure under the given operating conditions. Various high technology systems including aircraft and nuclear power plants are designed for very small probabilities of failure, and estimation of these small ...
Ikjin Lee   +5 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Failure probability of corroded pipeline considering the correlation of random variables

Engineering Failure Analysis, 2019
In view of the shortcomings of independence assumption for random variables in the reliability analysis of corroded pipeline, an analytical method is put forward for the reliability of corroded pipeline considering the correlation among random variables.
Peng Zhang   +4 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Area failure probability method for slope system failure risk assessment

Computers and geotechnics, 2019
Quantitative risk assessment of slope failure provides valuable information for slope reinforcement design and risk mitigation. Most of previous studies assessed the slope failure risk based on the critical slip surface with the minimum factor of safety.
Dianqing Li   +3 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

On the Failure Probability of Offshore Wind Turbines in the China Coastal Waters Due to Typhoons: A Case Study Using the OC4-DeepCwind Semisubmersible

IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 2019
The paper introduces a set of modeling methods to predict the failure probability of offshore wind turbines in the China coastal waters. In detail, a series of full-set three-dimensional meteorology simulations are conducted using the Weather Research ...
Yichao Liu   +3 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

A combined Importance Sampling and active learning Kriging reliability method for small failure probability with random and correlated interval variables

, 2020
The existing hybrid reliability analysis (HRA) method (Yang et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2015; Yang et al., 2015) is found not suitable for estimating small failure probabilities.
Xiao-Xiao Liu, I. Elishakoff
semanticscholar   +1 more source

An efficient method based on Bayes’ theorem to estimate the failure-probability-based sensitivity measure

Mechanical systems and signal processing, 2019
The failure-probability-based sensitivity, which measures the effect of input variables on the structural failure probability, can provide useful information in reliability based design optimization.
Yanping Wang, Sinan Xiao, Zhenzhou Lu
semanticscholar   +1 more source

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