Results 31 to 40 of about 1,369,551 (340)
Forecasting Breaks and Forecasting During Breaks [PDF]
, 2012 AbstractThis article, which proposes a new approach to forecasting breaks by focusing on the role of information, begins by outlining the eight conditions that are necessary to successfully forecast a break. Section 2 then considers the concepts of unpredictability and information to address the first necessary condition.
Jennifer Castle +2 more
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Journal of Forecasting, 2011 ABSTRACTP. C. B. Phillips (1998) demonstrated that deterministic trends are a valid representation of an otherwise stochastic trending mechanism; he remained skeptic, however, about the predictive power of such representations. In this paper we prove that forecasts built upon spurious regression may perform (asymptotically) as well as those issued from
Martínez-Rivera, B. +2 more
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Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast: January 2020 Report [PDF]
, 2020 This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for January 2020. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States
Jones, Gregory V.
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应用气象学报Based on FY-4A geostationary satellite multi-channel data, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during three downhill processes of convection strengthening (1 July 2021, 12 June 2022 and 4 August 2022) in Beijing are identified by temperature threshold ...
Yang Yiya +5 more
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Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change [PDF]
, 2011 We examine how to forecast after a recent break. We consider monitoring for change and then combining forecasts from models that do and do not use data before the change; and robust methods, namely rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different ...
Eklund, J., Kapetanios, G., Price, S.
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Journal of Futures Markets, 1999 The forecasting ability of the most popular volatility forecasting models is examined and an alternative model developed. Existing models are compared in terms of four attributes: (1) the relative weighting of recent versus older observations, (2) the estimation criterion, (3) the trade-off in terms of out-of-sample forecasting error between simple and
Ederington, Louis H., Guan, Wei
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Flood hazard risk forecasting index (FHRFI) for urban areas: The Hurricane Harvey case study
Meteorological Applications, 2020 Hurricane Harvey caused at least 70 confirmed deaths, with estimated losses in the Houston urban area of Texas reaching above US$150 billion, making it one of the costliest natural disasters ever in the United States.
Toni Jurlina +3 more
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Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value [PDF]
, 2015 While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables.
Mason I +6 more
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Zhongguo dizhi zaihai yu fangzhi xuebao, 2023 The establishment of the comprehensive geological disaster prevention and control system in Yunnan province stands as China’s most extensive and grand-scale endeavor in safeguarding the prevention and control of geological disasters in China.
Xiaobo KANG +8 more
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Improving Lidar Windshear Detection Efficiency by Removal of “Gentle Ramps”
Atmosphere, 2021 The Doppler Lidar windshear alerting system at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA), the first of its kind in the world, has been in operation since 2006.
Kai Kwong Hon, Pak Wai Chan
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