Results 11 to 20 of about 594,478 (289)
Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters [PDF]
European Journal of Operational Research, 2022 Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series features for forecast combination has flourished.
Yanfei Kang +3 more
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Forecasting FOMC Forecasts [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018 (Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves.
S. Yanki Kalfa, Jaime Marquez
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Forecasting Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2006 Survey of forecasters, containing respondents' predictions of future values of growth, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables, receive a lot of attention in the financial press, from investors, and from policy makers. They are apparently widely perceived to provide useful information about agents' expectations.
Eric Ghysels, Jonathan H. Wright
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Using Forecasts of Forecasters to Forecast [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006 Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates ...
Nolte, Ingmar, Pohlmeier, Winfried
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Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts [PDF]
International Statistical Review, 2004 Summary Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts.
Tuljapurkar, Shripad +2 more
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FORECASTS ON SOME FINANCIAL INDICATORS: A CASE STUDY FOR S.C.D.A SIMNIC [PDF]
Management & Marketing, 2023 In this paper, several financial indicators at S.C.D.A. Simnic are investigated from a statistical point of view. Using the method of least squares, the mathematical functions that model the trend are found and with the help of which financial forecasts ...
Ramona-Maria DIMITROV
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Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins [PDF]
, 2014 Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities.
Alfieri +52 more
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Retrospective Evaluation of the Five-Year and Ten-Year CSEP-Italy Earthquake Forecasts [PDF]
, 2010 On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy.
CSEP-Italy Working Group +4 more
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Forecasting Profitability [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013 We use newly-available Indian panel data to estimate how the returns to planting-stage investments vary by rainfall realizations. We show that the forecasts significantly affect farmer investment decisions and that these responses account for a substantial fraction of the inter-annual variability in planting-stage investments, that the skill of the ...
Mark Rosenzweig, Christopher R. Udry
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Analysing EU Countries’ Digital Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goals [PDF]
Amfiteatru Economic, 2023 The article analyses the level of digitalization in the European Union (EU) and correlates the results with the Sustainable Development Goals formulated by the United Nations.
Alexandra-Nicoleta Ciucu (Durnoi) +3 more
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