Results 11 to 20 of about 61,548 (268)
Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters [PDF]
European Journal of Operational Research, 2022 Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series features for forecast combination has flourished.
Yanfei Kang +3 more
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Argumentative Forecasting [PDF]
International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, 2022 We introduce the Forecasting Argumentation Framework (FAF), a novel argumentation framework for forecasting informed by recent judgmental forecasting research. FAFs comprise update frameworks which empower (human or artificial) agents to argue over time with and about probability of scenarios, whilst flagging perceived irrationality in their behaviour ...
Irwin, Benjamin +2 more
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Using Forecasts of Forecasters to Forecast [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006 Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates ...
Nolte, Ingmar, Pohlmeier, Winfried
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Forecasting FOMC Forecasts [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018 (Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves.
S. Yanki Kalfa, Jaime Marquez
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Forecasting Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2006 Survey of forecasters, containing respondents' predictions of future values of growth, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables, receive a lot of attention in the financial press, from investors, and from policy makers. They are apparently widely perceived to provide useful information about agents' expectations.
Eric Ghysels, Jonathan H. Wright
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Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts [PDF]
Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022 The drive to develop environmental prediction systems that are seamless across both weather and climate timescales has culminated in the development and use of Earth system models, which include a coupled representation of the atmosphere, land, ocean and
J. J. Day +7 more
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The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2021 Seasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the ...
Kristina Fröhlich +9 more
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The Econometrics Journal, 2004 Summary: We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially misspecified, and is likely to occur ...
David Hendry, Michael Clements
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Analysing EU Countries’ Digital Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goals [PDF]
Amfiteatru Economic, 2023 The article analyses the level of digitalization in the European Union (EU) and correlates the results with the Sustainable Development Goals formulated by the United Nations.
Alexandra-Nicoleta Ciucu (Durnoi) +3 more
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Simulation of the ENSO influence on the extra-tropical middle atmosphere
Earth, Planets and Space, 2019 The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Northern Hemisphere mid-winter zonal wind, temperature, and stationary planetary waves (SPWs) is evaluated using the Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for ...
Tatiana S. Ermakova +4 more
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