Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia. [PDF]
J Eur Econ Assoc, 2022 We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia and long-term-care (LTC) outcomes in the US Health and Retirement Study. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and establish ...
Giustinelli P, Manski CF, Molinari F.
europepmc +2 more sources
Systems of Precision: Coherent Probabilities on Pre-Dynkin Systems and Coherent Previsions on Linear Subspaces [PDF]
Entropy, 2023 In the literature on imprecise probability, little attention is paid to the fact that imprecise probabilities are precise on a set of events. We call these sets systems of precision.
Rabanus Derr, Robert C. Williamson
doaj +2 more sources
The effect of prior probabilities on quantification and propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets [PDF]
Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 2018 This paper outlines a methodology for Bayesian multimodel uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation and presents an investigation into the effect of prior probabilities on the resulting uncertainties.
Shields, Michael D., Zhang, Jiaxin
core +2 more sources
Sherlock Holmes Doesn’t Play Dice: The Mathematics of Uncertain Reasoning When Something May Happen, That You Are Not Even Able to Figure Out [PDF]
EntropyWhile Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster–Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its distinctive features. In
Guido Fioretti
doaj +2 more sources
Reliability analysis of subsea pipeline system based on fuzzy polymorphic bayesian network [PDF]
Scientific ReportsSubsea pipeline system faces significant challenges in practical engineering applications, including system complexity, environmental variability, and limited historical data.
Chao Liu +9 more
doaj +2 more sources
Refining Indeterministic Choice: Imprecise Probabilities and Strategic Thinking [PDF]
Vietnam Journal of Computer Science, 2020 Often, uncertainty is present in processes that are part of our routines. Having tools to understand the consequences of unpredictability is convenient. We introduce a general framework to deal with uncertainty in the realm of distribution sets that are ...
Jorge Castro +2 more
doaj +1 more source
Robust design optimization of a renewable-powered demand with energy storage using imprecise probabilities [PDF]
E3S Web of Conferences, 2021 During renewable energy system design, parameters are generally fixed or characterized by a precise distribution. This leads to a representation that fails to distinguish between uncertainty related to natural variation (i.e. future, aleatory uncertainty)
Coppitters Diederik +2 more
doaj +1 more source
Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2012 Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts ...
Paul Lehner +3 more
doaj +3 more sources
Why Credences Cannot be Imprecise [PDF]
Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems, 2014 Beliefs formed under uncertainty come in different grades, which are called credences or degrees of belief. The most common way of measuring the strength of credences is by ascribing probabilities to them.
Borut Trpin
doaj +1 more source
Respecting evidence: belief functions not imprecise probabilities
Synthese, 2022 The received model of degrees of belief represents them as probabilities. Over the last half century, many philosophers have been convinced that this model fails because it cannot make room for the idea that an agent’s degrees of belief should respect ...
Nicholas J. J. Smith
semanticscholar +1 more source