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Sherlock Holmes Doesn’t Play Dice: The Mathematics of Uncertain Reasoning When Something May Happen, That You Are Not Even Able to Figure Out [PDF]
EntropyWhile Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster–Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its distinctive features. In
Guido Fioretti
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Bayesian Network Based Imprecise Probability Estimation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events
Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 2021 Although wind power ramp events (WPREs) are relatively scarce, they can inevitably deteriorate the stability of power system operation and bring risks to the trading of electricity market.
Yuanchun Zhao +3 more
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Entropy, 2023 In the literature on imprecise probability, little attention is paid to the fact that imprecise probabilities are precise on a set of events. We call these sets systems of precision.
Rabanus Derr, Robert C. Williamson
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Why Credences Cannot be Imprecise [PDF]
Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems, 2014 Beliefs formed under uncertainty come in different grades, which are called credences or degrees of belief. The most common way of measuring the strength of credences is by ascribing probabilities to them.
Borut Trpin
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Neutrosophic Structure of the Geometric Model with Applications [PDF]
Neutrosophic Sets and Systems, 2023 In practical scenarios, it is common to encounter fuzzy data that contains numerous imprecise observations. The uncertainty associated with this type of data often leads to the use of interval statistical measures and the proposal of neutrosophic ...
Ahmedia Musa M. Ibrahim +3 more
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Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2012 Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts ...
Paul Lehner +3 more
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Logics of Imprecise Comparative Probability [PDF]
, 2021 This paper studies connections between two alternatives to the standard probability calculus for representing and reasoning about uncertainty: imprecise probability andcomparative probability.
Ding, Yifeng +2 more
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An efficient probabilistic workflow for estimating induced earthquake parameters in 3D heterogeneous media [PDF]
Solid Earth, 2022 We present an efficient probabilistic workflow for the estimation of source parameters of induced seismic events in three-dimensional heterogeneous media. Our workflow exploits a linearized variant of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. Compared
L. O. M. Masfara +3 more
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Variable Selection Bias in Classification Trees Based on Imprecise Probabilities [PDF]
, 2005 Classification trees based on imprecise probabilities provide an advancement of classical classification trees. The Gini Index is the default splitting criterion in classical classification trees, while in classification trees based on imprecise ...
Strobl, Carolin
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Imprecise probability for non-commuting observables
New Journal of Physics, 2015 It is known that non-commuting observables in quantum mechanics do not have joint probability. This statement refers to the precise (additive) probability model.
Armen E Allahverdyan
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