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Imprecise probability trees: Bridging two theories of imprecise probability
We give an overview of two approaches to probability theory where lower and upper probabilities, rather than probabilities, are used: Walley's behavioural theory of imprecise probabilities, and Shafer and Vovk's game-theoretic account of probability. We show that the two theories are more closely related than would be suspected at first sight, and we ...
de Cooman, Gert, Hermans, Filip
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Forecasting with imprecise probabilities
We review de Finetti’s two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1defined in terms of previsions for a set of events that are undominated by the status quo – previsions immune to a sure-loss – and coherence2 defined in terms of forecasts for events undominated in Brier score by a rival forecast.
Seidenfeld, Teddy +2 more
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Imprecise Bayesian Networks as Causal Models
This article considers the extent to which Bayesian networks with imprecise probabilities, which are used in statistics and computer science for predictive purposes, can be used to represent causal structure. It is argued that the adequacy conditions for
David Kinney
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Comparison of Two New Robust Parameter Estimation Methods for the Power Function Distribution. [PDF]
Estimation of any probability distribution parameters is vital because imprecise and biased estimates can be misleading. In this study, we investigate a flexible power function distribution and introduced new two methods such as, probability weighted ...
Muhammad Shakeel +4 more
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Bayesian Hybrid Automata: A Formal Model of Justified Belief in Interacting Hybrid Systems Subject to Imprecise Observation [PDF]
Hybrid discrete-continuous system dynamics arises when discrete actions, e.g. by a decision algorithm, meet continuous behaviour, e.g. due to physical processes and continuous control.
Kröger, Paul, Fränzle, Martin
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Probabilistic power flow is one of the fundamental tools for assessing the impacts of uncertainties on the operating states of power systems. However, this analysis requires sufficient historical data to obtain precise probability distributions of input ...
Chenxu Wang +3 more
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What does landslide triggering rainfall mean? [PDF]
Landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds are often subject to both false negatives (landslides where none are expected) and false positives (no landslides despite thresholds being exceeded).
Guthrie Richard +5 more
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Reasoning with imprecise probabilities
This special issue of the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (IJAR) grew out of the 4th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications (ISIPTA’05), held in Pittsburgh, USA, in July 2005 (http://www.sipta.org/isipta05). The symposium was organized by Teddy Seidenfeld, Robert Nau, and Fabio G.
Cano, A, Cozman, F, Lukasiewicz, T
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Uncertainty Multi-source Information Fusion for Intelligent Flood Risk Analysis Based on Random Set Theory [PDF]
Information fusion has been a hot topic currently, how to make information fusion for intelligent decision is a challenge. Although the applications of random set theory attract many researchers, the probability function distribution is still imprecise ...
Yajuan Xie +3 more
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Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Fuzzy Hypotheses Testing with Vague Data
In hypotheses testing, such as other statistical problems, we may confront imprecise concepts. One case is a situation in which both hypotheses and observations are imprecise. In this paper, we redefine some concepts about fuzzy hypotheses testing, and
Hamzeh Torabi, Javad Behboodian
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