Are inflation expectations rational? [PDF]
Abstract Several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an interpretation.
David Andolfatto +2 more
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Do monetary policy credibility and disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations affect business confidence? Evidence from an inflation targeting developing country [PDF]
Purpose – Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country, this paper investigates whether monetary policy credibility and ...
Gabriel Caldas Montes +1 more
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Inflation Regimes and Inflation Expectations [PDF]
There has been much talk in the popular press about the difficulty of attaining credibility in the bond markets for the low-inflation policies that have been adopted by a number of central banks in recent years. This credibility problem is particularly severe for those countries that have a history of high inflation.
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Euro Area Inflation Expectations [PDF]
Artículo de revista This study explores the recent dynamics of inflation expectations for the main euro area countries. It uses daily financial data for the main euro area countries over the past 15 years with a wide range of time horizons. The estimation of a model of the term structure of inflation expectations using these data allows the common part
Gimeno, Ricardo, Ortega, Eva
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Inflation and Perception: Drivers of Hungarian Households’ Expectations [PDF]
This study analyses the evolution of the Hungarian households’ inflation expectations in the period between 2015 and 2025 based on household questionnaire data, using an error correction model framework.
Tímea Várnai, Áron Szakály
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Determinants of inflation expectations in Colombia: a VAR-X analysis [PDF]
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the determinants of inflation expectations in Colombia through a vector autoregression model with exogenous variables (VAR-X) and uses quarterly data for survey-based inflation expectations and different supply ...
Daniel Osorio-Barreto +2 more
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Eurozone or national inflation projections: Which has greater impact on consumer expectations? [PDF]
We compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the
Szyszko Magdalena, Tura-Gawron Karolina
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The dynamics of survey-based household inflation expectations in India [PDF]
Purpose – The author analyzes households' inflation expectations data for India, collected quarterly by the RBI for more than a decade. The contribution of this paper lies in two folds.
Saakshi Jha
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Fitting observed inflation expectations [PDF]
zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Marco Del Negro, Stefano Eusepi
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Effects of fiscal credibility on inflation expectations: evidence from an emerging economy
This paper analyses the impact of fiscal imbalances on expectations for an emerging economy with inflation targeting. In particular, based on the Colombian experience, we build a fiscal credibility index and evaluate its impact on inflation expectations ...
Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata +1 more
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