Results 11 to 20 of about 890,803 (307)
The Long-Term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2023 We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations. German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today. Our evidence points towards a transmission of inflation experiences from parents to children and through local institutions.
Braggion, Fabio +3 more
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Response Bias in Survey Measures of Expectations: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Expectations’ Inflation Module [PDF]
, 2023 The Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) infers respondents’ inflation expectations from density forecasts. Using numeracy data and tests for coherence among 117,000 respondents to the SCE, I find that density forecasts suffer non-negligible reporting ...
Comerford, David A, David A. Comerford
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Communication, information and inflation expectations
Central Bank ReviewThis paper examines how the formation of inflation expectations and the magnitude of prediction errors vary among price setters based on the central bank’s communication and their level of information.
Fernando Borraz, Miguel Mello
doaj +2 more sources
Effects of Inflation Expectations on Inflation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021 Abstract We study the effects of professionals’ survey-based inflation expectations on inflation for a large number of 36 economies, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We find that inflation expectations have a significantly positive effect on inflation.
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Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019 This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades.
Matsuoka, Hideaki +3 more
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Anchored Inflation Expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017 We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends
Viana de Carvalho, Carlos +3 more
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Shocks to Inflation Expectations
IMF Working Papers, 2022 The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from
Jonathan J. Adams, Philip Barrett
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Are inflation expectations rational? [PDF]
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008 Abstract Several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the validity of such an interpretation.
David Andolfatto +2 more
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Updating Inflation Expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012 This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of consumers at each moment in time. We show that the propensity
Michael J. Lamla, Samad Sarferaz
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Inflation Regimes and Inflation Expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 1997 There has been much talk in the popular press about the difficulty of attaining credibility in the bond markets for the low-inflation policies that have been adopted by a number of central banks in recent years. This credibility problem is particularly severe for those countries that have a history of high inflation.
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