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Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany. [PDF]
J Money Credit Bank, 2022 Using the exact wording of the European Central Bank's definition of price stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long‐term inflation expectations and the credibility of the ...
Coleman W, Nautz D.
europepmc +2 more sources
Anchored Inflation Expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017 We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends
Viana de Carvalho, Carlos +3 more
openaire +3 more sources
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2022 Households’ and firms’ subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how ...
Michael Weber +3 more
semanticscholar +3 more sources
Do Inflation Expectations Improve Model-based Inflation Forecasts? [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021 Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not.
Bańbura, Marta +2 more
openaire +4 more sources
Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), 2021 We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations and future inflation. We find that the expectations of professional economists and of businesses have tended to provide more accurate predictions of future inflation than the expectations of households and of financial market participants.
Randal J. Verbrugge, Saeed Zaman
openaire +2 more sources
Communication, information and inflation expectations
Central Bank ReviewThis paper examines how the formation of inflation expectations and the magnitude of prediction errors vary among price setters based on the central bank’s communication and their level of information.
Fernando Borraz, Miguel Mello
doaj +2 more sources
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW AND BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS [PDF]
Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 2022 The main purpose of this work is to conduct a systematic literature review regarding inflation expectations, their determinants, and their implications for policy making in Latin America. The analysis shows the importance of inflation expectations in the
Daniel Osorio-Barreto +2 more
doaj +1 more source
Updating Inflation Expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012 KOF Working Papers ...
Michael J. Lamla, Samad Sarferaz
openaire +7 more sources
Endogenous Uncertainty and the Macroeconomic Impact of Shocks to Inflation Expectations
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2023 A shock that increases short-term inflation expectations has negative macroeconomic effects, increasing inflation and decreasing output. The third-order solution of a rich DSGE model with firm dynamics shows that the endogenous increase in uncertainty is
G. Ascari +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Trade unions’ inflation expectations and the second-round effect in South Africa [PDF]
PSL Quarterly Review, 2018 Inflation expectations play a critical role in the formation of prices and wages. Hence, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reacts to inflation’s direct effects by tightening the monetary policy in order to avoid any second-round effects. The study we
Temitope Lydia Leshoro
doaj +3 more sources