Results 181 to 190 of about 399,699 (283)

A Comparison of Realized Measures of Integrated Volatility: Price Duration‐ vs. Return‐Based Approaches

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the accuracy of a variety of parametric price duration‐based realized variance estimators constructed via various financial duration models and compare their forecasting performance with the performance of various nonparametric return‐based realized variance estimators.
Björn Schulte‐Tillmann, Mawuli Segnon, Timo Wiedemann   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Medium‐Term Covariance in Multiasset Portfolios

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting the covariance matrix of asset returns is central to portfolio construction, risk management, and asset pricing. However, most existing models struggle at medium‐term horizons, several weeks to months, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics prevail.
Pedro Reis, Ana Paula Serra, João Gama
wiley   +1 more source

Impact of Neuron Models on Spiking Neural Network Performance: A Complexity-based Classification Approach. [PDF]

Neuroinformatics
Rudnicka Z, Szczepanski J, Pregowska A.
europepmc   +1 more source

Regime‐Dependent Nowcasting of the Austrian Economy

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We nowcast and forecast economic activity in Austria, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency, using a preselected number of monthly indicators based on a combination of statistical procedures.
Jaroslava Hlouskova, Ines Fortin
wiley   +1 more source

Using DSGE and Machine Learning to Forecast Public Debt for France

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting public debt is essential for effective policymaking and economic stability, yet traditional approaches face challenges due to data scarcity. While machine learning (ML) has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, its application to macroeconomic forecasting remains underexplored, hindered by short historical time series and ...
Emmanouil Sofianos, Thierry Betti, Theophilos Papadimitriou, Amélie Barbier‐Gauchard, Periklis Gogas   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Quantum speedup for nonreversible Markov chains. [PDF]

Nat Commun
Claudon B, Piquemal JP, Monmarché P.
europepmc   +1 more source

On the Comovement of Contango and Backwardation Across Futures Commodity Markets

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We examine the time‐varying nature of the comovement of the slope of the futures curve in major agricultural, metals and energy commodity futures markets in a Global Vector Autoregressive model. We find significant comovement between the slopes, indicating the co‐existence of backwardation and contango in many seemingly unrelated commodity ...
Angelo Luisi, Francesco Roccazzella, Athanasios Triantafyllou   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Way More than the Sum of Their Parts: From Statistical to Structural Mixtures. [PDF]

Entropy (Basel)
Crutchfield JP.
europepmc   +1 more source

Quadratic Hedging of American Options Under GARCH Models

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT American options are widely traded in financial markets, yet there is a scarcity of literature on hedging in incomplete markets. In this paper, we derive optimal hedging ratios and option values using Local Risk Minimization (LRM) and Global Risk Minimization (GRM) hedging strategies through dynamic programming.
Junmei Ma, Chen Wang, Wei Xu
wiley   +1 more source

Mapping coastal transformations with a novel Cellular Automata-Markov-Random forest framework for land use change modeling. [PDF]

Sci Rep
Nikoo MR, Zarei E, Al-Wardy M.
europepmc   +1 more source