Adding flexibility to Markov Switching models [PDF]
Statistical Modelling, 2016 Abstract: Very often time series are subject to abrupt changes in the level, which are generally represented by Markov Switching (MS) models, assuming that the level is constant within a certain state (regime). This is not a realistic framework because in the same regime the level could change with minor jumps with respect to a change of state; this ...
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Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model in Mortality Forecasting
Risks, 2023 We apply a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregression (MSBVAR) model to mortality forecasting. MSBVAR has not previously been applied in this context, and our results show that it is a promising tool for mortality forecasting. Our model shows better
Wanying Fu +3 more
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Explicit-Duration Markov Switching Models [PDF]
Foundations and Trends® in Machine Learning, 2014 Markov switching models (MSMs) are probabilistic models that employ multiple sets of parameters to describe different dynamic regimes that a time series may exhibit at different periods of time. The switching mechanism between regimes is controlled by unobserved random variables that form a first-order Markov chain.
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Control problem for the impulse process under stochastic optimization procedure and Levy conditions
Математичні Студії, 2021 A stochastic approximation procedure and a limit generator of the original problem are constructed for a system of stochastic differential equations with Markov switching and impulse perturbation under Levy approximation conditions with control, which is
Ya. M. Chabanyuk +2 more
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Bayesian Nonparametric Panel Markov-Switching GARCH Models
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2023 38 pages, 12 ...
Roberto Casarin +2 more
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The Effect of Trade Volume on TEPIX Index in Bear and Bull Cycles: An Application of Markov-Switching Model [PDF]
فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران, 2014 In this paper, the effect of trade volume on TEPIX index is investigated based on bull and bear cycles of Tehran stock Exchange (TSE) using nonlinear Markov-Switching model.
Abbas Kalantari, Navid Khalil Paktinat
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Using Markov switching models to infer dry and rainy periods from telecommunication microwave link signals [PDF]
Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 2012 A Markov switching algorithm is introduced to classify attenuation measurements from telecommunication microwave links into dry and rainy periods. It is based on a simple state-space model and has the advantage of not relying on empirically estimated ...
Z. Wang +4 more
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Analytical Derivatives for Markov Switching Models [PDF]
Computational Economics, 1997 Dans cette étude, les auteurs dérivent des gradients analytiques pour toute une catégorie de modèles à changement de régime comportant des probabilités de transition à la Markov. Ces modèles sont généralement estimés à l'aide de méthodes du maximum de vraisemblance, qui nécessitent que la fonction de vraisemblance soit dérivée par rapport au vecteur ...
Jeff Gable +2 more
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Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Modelling of the Nigerian Stock Price and Oil Price Series
Quantitative Economics Research, 2018 This article studied the relationship between stock prices and crude oil prices of Nigeria using a Markov switching model. Certain properties of the stock price series and crude oil price series such as breaks and stationarity, which are necessary before
Emmanuel W Okereke +1 more
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EARLY WARNING INDICATORS STUDY OF BANK RUNS IN INDONESIA : MARKOV-SWITCHING APPROACH
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 2012 A run on a particular bank can lead to a banking crisis if it spreads to other banks (contagious effect). In the case of Indonesia, bank runs have also reoccurred time and again.
Iskandar Simorangkir
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