Results 11 to 20 of about 224 (161)
Australian Economic ReviewABSTRACT This article examines the concept of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and its application in Australia. We review its theoretical origins, international and domestic development, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's model‐based estimation approach.
Isaac Gross
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Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume 38, Issue 4, Page 453-471, June/July 2023., 2023 Summary This paper examines the presence of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. We allow for a flexible form of nonlinearity and estimate a threshold regression model with the number and location of thresholds determined directly from the data. Over the estimation period starting in the late 1960s, we document that the linear model cannot be rejected
Alexander Doser +3 more
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Fiscal Policy in the COVID‐19 Era1
Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, Volume 42, Issue 2, Page 107-152, June 2023., 2023 This paper analyses the COVID recession and the large fiscal policy response by modelling scenarios using a macro‐econometric model. The COVID recession mainly arose from lower household consumption of certain services under COVID social distancing. The fiscal response to compensate for income losses in those service industries meant that unemployment ...
Chris Murphy
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The Australian Economy in 2022–23: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates in a Post‐COVID‐19 World
Australian Economic Review, Volume 56, Issue 1, Page 5-19, March 2023., 2023 Abstract Record levels of domestic and global stimulus during the COVID‐19 pandemic years helped to mitigate largely unparalleled downside risks. Post‐COVID‐19, inflation surged in Australia due to overseas factors such as the war in Ukraine, and domestic factors such as COVID‐related backlogs in the construction sector.
Sarantis Tsiaplias, Jiao Wang
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Australian Economic Review, Volume 56, Issue 1, Page 61-69, March 2023., 2023 Abstract This article introduces the Policy Forum. It contains: (i) a brief overview of the fiscal policies introduced to deal with COVID‐19 and their impact on Australia's economic performance; (ii) summaries of the articles in the Forum; and (iii) suggested learnings for policymaking in future crises.
Jeff Borland
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A Traditional Nominal Wage Phillips Curve: Theory and Evidence
Economic Record, Volume 99, Issue 324, Page 108-121, March 2023., 2023 By combining simple contracting schemes with firms' optimisation, we provide theoretical underpinnings to the traditional nominal wage Phillips curve. The parameters of our Phillips curve have a structural interpretation. We extend the model to include the effect of the labour share, a factor that is absent in the new Keynesian model.
Malikane Christopher
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Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 85, Issue 1, Page 238-267, February 2023., 2023 Abstract This paper documents the suite of models (SoMs) used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the estimated output gap series in terms of its forecasting properties, its reliability and its cyclical sensitivity to ...
Francesco Furlanetto +3 more
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Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty‐First Century*
Economic Record, Volume 98, Issue 322, Page 271-295, September 2022., 2022 Using the Reserve Bank of Australia's MARTIN model, we compare actual monetary policy decisions with a counterfactual in which the cash rate is set according to an optimal simple rule. We find that monetary policy played a crucial role in avoiding a potential recession in 2001 and mitigating the downturn in 2008–09.
Isaac Gross, Andrew Leigh
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Robust inference under time‐varying volatility: A real‐time evaluation of professional forecasters
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume 37, Issue 5, Page 1010-1030, August 2022., 2022 Summary In many forecast evaluation applications, standard tests as well as tests allowing for time‐variation in relative forecast ability build on heteroskedasticity‐and‐autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance estimators. Yet, the finite‐sample performance of these asymptotics is often poor.
Matei Demetrescu +2 more
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Measuring the Nairu: A Complementary Approach [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011 Estimates of the Nairu generally suer from a large uncertainty, which can be reduced by adopting a bivariate framework and assuming that shifts of the Phillips curve share a common trend with the unemployment rate. We consider in this paper if this common trend assumption is empirically relevant or not for seven economies over the sample 1973-2010 ...
De la Serve, M-E., Lemoine, M.
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