Results 111 to 120 of about 66,400 (301)

Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability [PDF]

, 2012
Holocene climate was characterised by variability on multi-centennial to multi-decadal time scales. In central Europe, these fluctuations were most pronounced during winter. Here we present a record of past winter climate variability for the last 10.8 ka
Fohlmeister, Jens, Gerdes, Axel, Immenhauser, Adrian, Mangini, Augusto, Mudelsee, Manfred, Richter, Detlev K., Riechelmann, Dana F. C., Riechelmann, Sylvia, Scholz, Denis, Schröder-Ritzrau, Andrea, Spötl, Christoph, Wackerbarth, Anne Katrin   +11 more
core   +2 more sources

Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical–dynamical approach

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study explores how the atmospheric state at initialisation creates windows of opportunity for improving week 3 forecasts of weather regime activity. Greenland blocking activity increases following Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 7, 8, and 1 and weak stratospheric polar vortex states, revealing patterns exploitable by statistical models.
Fabian Mockert, Christian M. Grams, Sebastian Lerch, Julian Quinting   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Hydrological variations in central China over the past millennium and their links to the Tropic Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans [PDF]

, 2020
Variations of precipitation, aka the Meiyu rain, in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain during the last millennium could help enlighten the hydrological response to future global warming.
Chen, Jianshun, Chen, Shitao, Duan, Fucai, Liao, Zebo, Shao, Qingfeng, Wang, Yi, Zhang, Zhenqiu, Zhao, Kan   +7 more
core  

Thermohaline forcing and interannual variability of northwestern inflows into the northern North Sea [PDF]

, 2017
A long-established, 127 km-long hydrographic section in the northern North Sea at 59.28°N that runs from the eastern coast of Orkney (2.23°W) to the central North Sea (0°) crosses the path of the main inflows of Atlantic water.
Alejandro Gallego, Backhaus, Barbara Berx, Beaugrand, Bretherton, Brown, Chereskin, Coelingh, Damm, Denman, Dickson, Dooley, Dooley, Edwards, Furnes, Hill, Hjøllo, Holliday, Hurrell, Hurrell, Karen J. Heywood, Lindley, Otto, Peter M.F. Sheehan, Pohlmann, Prandle, Rob A. Hall, Sarah L. Hughes, Schaeffer, Schlesinger, Siegismund, Skogen, Svendsen, Sætre, Sündermann, Taylor, Thomson, Trenberth, Turrell, Turrell, Turrell, Turrell, Turrell, Winther   +43 more
core   +1 more source

A pilot variational coupled reanalysis based on the CESAM climate model

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Variational data assimilation of in‐situ and satellite ocean data and reanalysis atmospheric data into an intermediate complexity Earth system model is possible by adjusting the surface fluxes and internal model parameters. This pilot application requires nearly complete information on the atmospheric state for synchronization.
Armin Köhl, Iuliia Polkova, Guokun Lyu, Frank Lunkeit, Abhirup Banerjee, Silke Schubert, Detlef Stammer   +6 more
wiley   +1 more source

Assessing the impact of model biases on subseasonal forecast skill

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Relaxation experiments where the nudging was performed towards bias‐corrected integrations of the same model display significantly improved skill at weeks 3 and 4, particularly in the northern extratropics. This indicates that there is a large potential for improving dynamical subseasonal forecasting skill by improved treatment of model biases.
Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda
wiley   +1 more source

Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble

Geophysical Research Letters
The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe.
L. H. Baker, L. C. Shaffrey, S. J. Johnson, A. Weisheimer   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

Using a causal effect network approach to quantify the impact of ENSO teleconnections on summer monsoon precipitation over the Himalayas and key regional circulations

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We quantified the causal effect (CE) of linkages between four monthly climate indices ENSO, SMHP, RWC, and MHC for 1940–2022 with a time lag of one month. The results show CE values from (1) ENSO to SMHP of −0.33$$ -0.33 $$ to −0.44$$ -0.44 $$ (i.e., a one standard deviation (SD) increase in ENSO causes a decrease in SMHP of −0.33$$ -0.33 $$ to −0.44$$
Grzegorz Muszynski, Andrew Orr, Indrani Roy, Giorgia Di Capua, Hamish D. Pritchard, J. Scott Hosking   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Exceptionally poor and good medium‐range forecasts of the large‐scale circulation over Europe in ERA5 reforecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study investigates year‐round exceptionally poor and good day‐6 forecasts of the 500‐hPa geopotential height field over Europe using 45 years of ERA5 reforecasts and applies a weather regime perspective to analyse large‐scale pattern evolution and regime transitions.
Seraphine Hauser, Steven M. Cavallo, Linus Magnusson, Jonathan E. Martin, David B. Parsons   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Quantifying driving ensemble influence on operational convection‐permitting ensemble spread

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
By comparing statistics of precipitation patterns between a convection‐permitting ensemble and the global ensemble used to drive it, we investigate the conditions under which the convection‐permitting ensemble diverges from the evolution of the driving ensemble.
Adam Gainford, Suzanne L. Gray, Thomas H. A. Frame, Aurore N. Porson, Marco Milan   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source