Mathematical model to mitigate planning fallacy and to determine realistic delivery time
IIMB Management Review, 2018 Planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate the duration of a task due to the optimistic bias of individuals. We design a mechanism from the principal's perspective (an original equipment manufacturer (OEM)) to mitigate the optimistic bias of ...
Rahul R Marathe, S Yamini
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The Planning Fallacy in the Orthopedic Operating Room. [PDF]
Cureus, 2021 The planning fallacy posits that humans tend to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a project and that greater complexity results in a larger difference in that estimation. If this phenomenon is present in the orthopedic operating room, it could lead to negative impacts on patients, their families, and physicians themselves.
Katt BM +9 more
europepmc +4 more sources
Cognitive biases in shoulder surgery decision-making: a narrative review of hidden influences and mitigation strategies [PDF]
JSES InternationalDespite advances in evidence-based guidelines, three-dimensional pre-operative planning, and digital decision support, decision-making in shoulder surgery remains influenced by cognitive biases.
Christopher Fernainy, BS +2 more
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The Relationship between the Planning Fallacy and Estimates of Task Duration
AAOS Transactions, 2022 The research examines the relationship between the planning fallacy and estimates of task duration. The planning fallacy refers to a prediction, in which people underestimate the time it will take to complete tasks, despite the knowledge that tasks
Jun TAKAHASHI
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Addressing financial biases in university undergraduates: Unveiling connections with knowledge, behaviours and attitudes. [PDF]
PLoS ONEPurposeThis study investigates how financial knowledge, behaviours, and attitudes shape the prevalence of financial biases among Economics students at the University of Santiago de Compostela.MethodologyBased on survey data from 403 first- and fourth ...
Celia López-Penabad +2 more
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Moving Beyond the Planning Fallacy: The Emergence of a New Principle of Project Behavior [PDF]
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2022 The question—what explains cost overruns and benefit shortfalls—remains an important conversation in project management. Two theoretical principles, the Planning Fallacy and the Hiding Hand, shed light on project behavior, that is how projects take different and complex out-turns.
Peter E.D. Love +2 more
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Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation? [PDF]
World Development, 2018 This paper asks and answers the question of whether Kahneman's planning fallacy or Hirschman's Hiding Hand best explain performance in capital investment projects. I agree with my critics that the Hiding Hand exists, i.e., sometimes benefit overruns outweigh cost overruns in project planning and delivery.
Bent Flyvbjerg
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The Japanese Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2010 本研究は，達成動機づけと締め切りまでの時間的距離感が計画錯誤に及ぼす影響について検討した。計画錯誤は，課題の遂行を楽観的に予測するために生じるといわれている。先行研究は，予測時の動機づけが予測を楽観的にし，また時間的距離感は楽観的予測を調整することを示唆している。そこで本研究は，48人の参加者に動機づけの操作のための乱文再構成課題（達成プライミングvs.誘惑プライミング）と期末テストまでの時間的距離感に回答してもらい，また期末テストのための勉強時間を予測してもらった。その後，テスト当日に，実際に行った勉強時間について回答してもらった。その結果，達成プライミング条件の参加者は，誘惑プライミング条件の参加者に比べて，勉強時間をより楽観的に見積もり，計画錯誤が生じていた。またこの傾向は ...
Higuchi, Osamu +2 more
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The Planning Fallacy in Patients With Chronic Lung Disease
JAMA Network Open, 2023 Donald A. Redelmeier
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Backward planning: Effects of planning direction on predictions of task completion time [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2016 People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy – known as backward planning – that may counteract this optimistic bias.
Jessica Wiese +2 more
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