Results 41 to 50 of about 10,696 (267)
Short-term probabilistic forecasting models using Beta distributions for photovoltaic plants
Energy Reports, 2023 This article presents original probabilistic forecasting models for day-ahead hourly energy generation forecasts for a photovoltaic (PV) plant, based on a semi-parametric approach using three deterministic forecasts. Input information of these new models
L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez +2 more
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Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 2014 A probabilistic forecast takes the form of a predictive probability distribution over future quantities or events of interest. Probabilistic forecasting aims to maximize the sharpness of the predictive distributions, subject to calibration, on the basis of the available information set.
Tilmann Gneiting, Matthias Katzfuss
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Probabilistic Drought Forecasting in Southern Taiwan Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index
Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 2013 This study proposes a probabilistic drought forecasting model to forecast meteorological drought in Southern Taiwan using the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index.
Shien-Tsung Chen +4 more
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Improving Forecast Reliability for Geographically Distributed Photovoltaic Generations
Energies, 2021 Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs) to evaluate the uncertainty quantitively.
Daisuke Kodaira +3 more
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Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with scoringRules [PDF]
Journal of Statistical Software, 2019 Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology, economics, and demography. In typical applications, many alternative statistical models and data sources can be used to produce probabilistic forecasts.
Jordan, Alexander +2 more
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Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study [PDF]
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2015 Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and ...
P. Bauer-Gottwein +5 more
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Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting in Smart Grids: A Review
Applied Sciences, 2022 This paper reviews the recent studies and works dealing with probabilistic forecasting models and their applications in smart grids. According to these studies, this paper tries to introduce a roadmap towards decision-making under uncertainty in a smart ...
Hosna Khajeh, Hannu Laaksonen
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A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecasting and Outlook
Advances in Meteorology, 2016 Reliable drought forecasting is necessary to develop mitigation plans to cope with severe drought. This study developed a probabilistic scheme for drought forecasting and outlook combined with quantification of the prediction uncertainties.
Ji Yae Shin +3 more
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DR potential probabilistic forecasting model of load aggregators based on ensemble learning
Diance yu yibiaoDay-ahead forecasting on the demand response (DR) potential of the load aggregators could provide important reference information for the quotations and volumes of load aggregators in the electricity market, thus reducing decision-making risks. Aiming at
YEERSEN Sailike +5 more
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IEEE Access, 2023 Wind power generation is characterized by high intermittency and volatility owing to the stochastic nature of wind. In addition to forecasting accuracy, forecasting uncertainty quantification can have a major impact on power system energy management and ...
Markos A. Kousounadis-Knousen +4 more
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