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Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2003 As examples such as the Monty Hall puzzle show, applying conditioning to update a probability distribution on a ``naive space'', which does not take into account the protocol used, can often lead to counterintuitive results. Here we examine why. A criterion known as CAR (``coarsening at random'') in the statistical literature characterizes when ...
Peter Grünwald, Joseph Y. Halpern
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The American Mathematical Monthly, 2005 The act of a person juggling can be viewed as a Markov process if we assume that the juggler throws to random heights. I make this association for the simplest reasonable model of random juggling and compute the steady state probabilities in terms of the Stirling numbers of the second kind. I also explore several alternate models of juggling.
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Probability Logic and Logical Probability
, 2007 Authors like Keynes, H. Jeffreys and Carnap advocated using a concept of "logical probability". Logical probability had the following properties: (a) it was representable as a function from potential states of full belief (or "evidence") to states of subjective or credal probability judgment.
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Journal of Philosophical Logic, 2015 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
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The Probability-Resultant [PDF]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1935 openaire +2 more sources
Cheating Probabilities? Probably Not [PDF]
Journal of Chemical Education, 1999 openaire +1 more source
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The probability of probability and research truths
Emergency Medicine Australasia, 2017AbstractThe foundation of much medical research rests on the statistical significance of the P‐value, but we have fallen prey to the seductive certainty of significance. Other scientific disciplines work to a different standard. This may partly explain why medical reversal is an increasing phenomenon, whereby new studies (based on the 0.05 standard ...
Daniel M Fatovich, Michael Phillips
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