Results 191 to 200 of about 425,347 (290)

Regime‐Dependent Nowcasting of the Austrian Economy

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We nowcast and forecast economic activity in Austria, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency, using a preselected number of monthly indicators based on a combination of statistical procedures.
Jaroslava Hlouskova, Ines Fortin
wiley   +1 more source

Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic predictive power of the volatility of the US Treasury yield curve slope (term spread volatility). Our forecasting exercise shows that US term spread volatility has significant predictive power for US industrial production and employment growth.
Anastasios Megaritis   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

A modified indirect method for computing inbreeding coefficients. [PDF]

open access: yesGenet Sel Evol
Huang CH   +5 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Global Insights Into Term Spreads: Unveiling Their Predictive Power During Unconventional Monetary Policy

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study investigates the predictive power of the term spread for forecasting economic activity across both conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. Utilizing data from 22 OECD countries spanning the period from 1985Q1 to 2024Q2, the analysis reveals that the term spread generally maintains its ability to predict GDP growth ...
Petri Kuosmanen, Juuso Vataja
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting Volatility of Commodity, Currency, and Stock Markets: Evidence From Markov‐Switching Multifractal Models

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper adopts a bivariate Markov‐switching multifractal (BMSM) model to reexamine comovement in SV between commodity, foreign exchange (FX), and stock markets. After the 2007–2008 global financial crisis understanding volatility linkages and the correlation structure between these markets becomes very important for risk analysts, portfolio
Ruipeng Liu   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

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