The Impact of Uncertainty on Forecasting the US Economy
ABSTRACT This paper examines the predictive value of uncertainty measures for key macroeconomic indicators across multiple forecast horizons. We evaluate how different uncertainty proxies—economic policy uncertainty (EPU), VIX, geopolitical risk, and measures of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty—enhance forecast accuracy for industrial production,
Angelica Ghiselli
wiley +1 more source
Monitoring pilots' mental workload in real flight conditions using multinomial logistic regression with a ridge estimator. [PDF]
Haseeb M +5 more
europepmc +1 more source
Using DSGE and Machine Learning to Forecast Public Debt for France
ABSTRACT Forecasting public debt is essential for effective policymaking and economic stability, yet traditional approaches face challenges due to data scarcity. While machine learning (ML) has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, its application to macroeconomic forecasting remains underexplored, hindered by short historical time series and ...
Emmanouil Sofianos +4 more
wiley +1 more source
Internal validation strategy for high dimensional prognosis model: A simulation study and application to transcriptomic in head and neck tumors. [PDF]
Dubray-Vautrin A +12 more
europepmc +1 more source
Nowcasting World Trade With Machine Learning: A Three‐Step Approach
ABSTRACT We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree‐based methods (random forest and gradient boosting) and their linear‐regression‐based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest and gradient boosting—linear). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform not only the tree‐based techniques ...
Menzie Chinn +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Behavior of prediction performance metrics with rare events. [PDF]
Minus E +3 more
europepmc +1 more source
Under steady–state conditions, potential nitrogen mineralization in soil under grasslands is closely tied to potential carbon mineralization. This study provides supporting evidence that field–specific nitrogen fertilizer recommendations could be indicated by using a simple and rapid analysis of soil–test biological activity.
Alan J. Franzluebbers
wiley +1 more source
Enhancing credit card fraud detection with a hybrid approach using machine and deep learning. [PDF]
Gamal N, Younis EMG, Makram WM.
europepmc +1 more source
ABSTRACT Background Simultaneous reconstruction of extensive maxillary and mandibular defects in oncological cases is a complex surgical challenge. Methods We report a case of a 56‐year‐old female with synchronous oral malignancy involving upper and lower alveolus.
Subhendu Khan +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Uncertainty aware and explainable construction cost prediction using a hybrid probabilistic learning model. [PDF]
Chen L +7 more
europepmc +1 more source

