Results 231 to 240 of about 311,872 (300)

Acute stress reduces risk-aversion by changing magnitude perception

Renkert MF, de Hollander G, Aydogan G, Bedi S, Forbes P, Lamm C, Ruff CC.   +6 more
europepmc   +1 more source

When Are Statistical Forecast Gains Economically Relevant? Evidence From Bitcoin Returns

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study how statistical forecast gains for Bitcoin translate into trading profits. Using real‐time out‐of‐sample forecasts from daily bivariate VARs from October 2021 to February 2024, we show that Bitcoin returns are forecastable and that seven predictive indices yield significant gains in directional accuracy (DA).
Rehan Arain, Stephen Snudden
wiley   +1 more source

A Comparison of Realized Measures of Integrated Volatility: Price Duration‐ vs. Return‐Based Approaches

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the accuracy of a variety of parametric price duration‐based realized variance estimators constructed via various financial duration models and compare their forecasting performance with the performance of various nonparametric return‐based realized variance estimators.
Björn Schulte‐Tillmann, Mawuli Segnon, Timo Wiedemann   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Enhancing Volatility Prediction: A Wavelet‐Based Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation Approach

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting realized volatility (RV) has been widely studied, with numerous techniques developed to enhance predictive accuracy. Among these techniques, the use of RV decompositions based on intraday asset returns has been applied. However, the use of a frequency‐based decomposition, which provides unique insights into the dynamics of RV ...
Adam Clements, Ajith Perera
wiley   +1 more source

The Impact of Derivative Use on Default Probability Among Nonfinancial Firms: Evidence From European Firms

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper examines how institutional environments shape the effectiveness of derivative hedging in reducing corporate default risk. Using hand‐collected data from non‐financial firms across nine European countries and various econometric methods to control for endogeneity, we provide novel evidence that the risk‐reducing benefits of ...
Amrit Judge, Khai Le, Kim Ly
wiley   +1 more source

The Case of Fleeting Orders and Flickering Quotes

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT The literature controversially discusses the ambiguous motives and driving forces behind quickly cancelled limit orders (fleeting orders), which are characteristic of high‐frequency markets. In particular, manipulative and dysfunctional characteristics are feared. We analyze top‐of‐book fleeting orders—so‐called flickering quotes—and show with
Markus Ulze, Johannes Stadler, Andreas W. Rathgeber   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Oil Futures Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Bond Risk Premiums

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT By decomposing West Texas Intermediate futures price changes into structural supply and demand shocks, this paper shows that dissecting the oil price significantly improves inflation forecasts. Empirically, demand‐driven shocks predict a negative real bond risk premium but a positive inflation risk premium; these opposing effects result in an ...
Haibo Jiang
wiley   +1 more source

Income–Well‐Being Gradient in Sickness and Health

Health Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We propose a method for studying the value of insurance. For this purpose, we analyze the well‐being of the same individuals, comparing sick and healthy years, using German panel survey data on life satisfaction. We impose structure on the income–well‐being gradient by fitting a flexible utility function to the data, focusing on the ...
Ohto Kanninen, Petri Böckerman, Ilpo Suoniemi   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Effects of Long‐Term Exposure to the Earned Income Tax Credit on Work Disability in Later Life

Health Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on work disability and Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) claims among Americans. Utilizing the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we examine the effects of EITC exposure from birth to mid‐adulthood on work disability risk before retirement. Our analysis reveals that
Katie Jajtner, Keisha T. Solomon, Yang Wang   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Asymmetric Information With Multiple Risks: The Case of the Chilean Private Health Insurance Market

Health Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We extend the Rothshild and Stiglitz (1976) model to two sources of risk –inpatient and outpatient risk– to better proxy real‐world health insurance markets. We uncover an interesting theoretical possibility: Take individuals A and B, who are low risks in, say, the inpatient dimension but A is riskier in the outpatient dimension.
Dolores de la Mata, Matilde P. Machado, Pau Olivella, Nieves Valdés   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source