Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study the accuracy of a variety of parametric price duration‐based realized variance estimators constructed via various financial duration models and compare their forecasting performance with the performance of various nonparametric return‐based realized variance estimators.
Björn Schulte‐Tillmann +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Machine Learning Approaches to Forecast the Realized Volatility of Crude Oil Prices
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper presents an evaluation of the accuracy of machine learning (ML) techniques in forecasting the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. We compare several ML algorithms, including regularization, regression trees, random forests, and neural networks, to several heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models ...
Talha Omer +3 more
wiley +1 more source
A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Medium‐Term Covariance in Multiasset Portfolios
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting the covariance matrix of asset returns is central to portfolio construction, risk management, and asset pricing. However, most existing models struggle at medium‐term horizons, several weeks to months, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics prevail.
Pedro Reis, Ana Paula Serra, João Gama
wiley +1 more source
Enhancing Volatility Prediction: A Wavelet‐Based Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation Approach
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting realized volatility (RV) has been widely studied, with numerous techniques developed to enhance predictive accuracy. Among these techniques, the use of RV decompositions based on intraday asset returns has been applied. However, the use of a frequency‐based decomposition, which provides unique insights into the dynamics of RV ...
Adam Clements, Ajith Perera
wiley +1 more source
Advancing Circular Economy Implementation for High-Speed Train Rolling Stocks by the Integration of Digital Twins and Artificial Intelligence. [PDF]
Sensors (Basel)Khongsomchit L, Kaewunruen S.
europepmc +1 more source
Annual Reports to the ESA Council ESA 110th Annual Meeting July, 2025
The Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, EarlyView.
wiley +1 more source
Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Market Interconnectedness
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT While the existing research uncovers interconnections between various housing markets, it largely ignores the question of whether such linkages can improve house price predictions. To address this issue, we proceed in two steps. First, we forecast disaggregated house price growth rates from Australia and China to determine whether ...
Zac Chen +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Analysis of Roll Pass Wear in the Railway Rail Rolling Process. [PDF]
Materials (Basel)Szota P +4 more
europepmc +1 more source
Regime‐Dependent Nowcasting of the Austrian Economy
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We nowcast and forecast economic activity in Austria, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency, using a preselected number of monthly indicators based on a combination of statistical procedures.
Jaroslava Hlouskova, Ines Fortin
wiley +1 more source
Quantifying the Linguistic Complexity of Pan-Homophonic Events in Stock Market Volatility Dynamics. [PDF]
Entropy (Basel)Zhang Y, Tian J, Zou Y, Zhang X, Cai X.
europepmc +1 more source