Results 1 to 10 of about 1,108 (256)

Verification of solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts [PDF]

Solar Energy, 2019
Abstract We propose a framework for evaluating the quality of solar irradiance probabilistic forecasts. The verification framework is based on visual diagnostic tools and a set of scoring rules mostly originating from the weather forecast verification community. Two types of probabilistic forecasts are used as a basis to illustrate the application of
Pierre Pinson, Mathieu David, Philippe Lauret   +2 more
exaly   +3 more sources

Next-Day Prediction of Hourly Solar Irradiance Using Local Weather Forecasts and LSTM Trained with Non-Local Data

Energies, 2020
Solar irradiance prediction is significant for maximizing energy-saving effects in the predictive control of buildings. Several models for solar irradiance prediction have been developed; however, they require the collection of weather data over a long ...
Byung-ki Jeon, Eui-Jong Kim
doaj   +3 more sources

Short-term and long-term solar irradiance forecasting with advanced machine learning techniques in Zafarana, Egypt [PDF]

Scientific Reports
The increasing demand for renewable energy sources has positioned solar energy as a pivotal component in the global transition towards sustainable power generation.
Ali Taha, Peter Makeen, Nathalie Nazih
doaj   +2 more sources

Machine-learning-based probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance in Chile [PDF]

Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
By the end of 2023, renewable sources covered 63.4 % of the total electric-power demand of Chile, and, in line with the global trend, photovoltaic (PV) power showed the most dynamic increase.
S. Baran, J. C. Marín, J. C. Marín, O. Cuevas, O. Cuevas, M. Díaz, M. Szabó, O. Nicolis, M. Lakatos   +8 more
doaj   +4 more sources

Probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance using stochastic differential equations [PDF]

Environmetrics, 2014
Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state‐of‐the‐art forecasts for solar irradiance have focused on producing reliable point forecasts.
Juan M Morales
exaly   +2 more sources

Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasts Using Sky Images and Radiative Transfer Model

Energies, 2018
In this paper, we propose a novel forecast method which addresses the difficulty in short-term solar irradiance forecasting that arises due to rapidly evolving environmental factors over short time periods.
Juan Du, Qilong Min, Penglin Zhang, Jinhui Guo, Jun Yang, Bangsheng Yin   +5 more
doaj   +3 more sources

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

Atmosphere, 2022
We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS).
Ju-Hye Kim, Pedro A. Jiménez, Manajit Sengupta, Jimy Dudhia, Jaemo Yang, Stefano Alessandrini   +5 more
doaj   +1 more source

A Bayesian Approach to Probabilistic Solar Irradiance Forecasting

2022 North American Power Symposium (NAPS), 2022
The output of solar power generation is significantly dependent on the available solar radiation. Thus, with the proliferation of PV generation in the modern power grid, forecasting of solar irradiance is vital for proper operation of the grid. To achieve an improved accuracy in prediction performance, this paper discusses a Bayesian treatment of ...
Kwasi Opoku, Svetlana Lucemo, Qun Zhou Sun, Aleksandar D. Dimitrovski   +3 more
openaire   +2 more sources

A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe

Climate Services, 2022
We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
Philip E. Bett, Hazel E. Thornton, Alberto Troccoli, Matteo De Felice, Emma Suckling, Laurent Dubus, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, David J. Brayshaw   +7 more
doaj   +1 more source

Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers

Energies, 2022
Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms,
Stavros-Andreas Logothetis, Vasileios Salamalikis, Bijan Nouri, Jan Remund, Luis F. Zarzalejo, Yu Xie, Stefan Wilbert, Evangelos Ntavelis, Julien Nou, Niels Hendrikx, Lennard Visser, Manajit Sengupta, Mário Pó, Remi Chauvin, Stephane Grieu, Niklas Blum, Wilfried van Sark, Andreas Kazantzidis   +17 more
doaj   +1 more source